Related papers: Estimating HIV Epidemics for Sub-National Areas
We develop Graph-Coupled Hidden Markov Models (GCHMMs) for modeling the spread of infectious disease locally within a social network. Unlike most previous research in epidemiology, which typically models the spread of infection at the level…
A central challenge in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) public health policy lies in determining whether to universally expand treatment access, despite the risk of sub-optimal adherence and consequent drug resistance, or to adopt a more…
The objective is to model longitudinal and survival data jointly taking into account the dependence between the two responses in a real HIV/AIDS dataset using a shared parameter approach inside a Bayesian framework. We propose a linear…
In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model HIT, which is suitable for analyzing and predicting the propagation of COVID-19 epidemics. This is a discrete-time model allowing a reconstruction of the dynamics of…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra-…
In small area estimation, it is sometimes necessary to use model-based methods to produce estimates in areas with little or no data. In official statistics, we often require that some aggregate of small area estimates agree with a national…
An epidemic model where disease transmission can occur either through global contacts or through local, nearest neighbor interactions is considered. The classical SIR--model describing the global interactions is extended by adding…
In this paper we investigate a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model describing data dissemination in opportunistic networks with heterogeneous setting of transmission parameters. We obtained the estimation of the final…
Pathogen deep-sequencing is an increasingly routinely used technology in infectious disease surveillance. We present a semi-parametric Bayesian Poisson model to exploit these emerging data for inferring infectious disease transmission flows…
When observations are organized into groups where commonalties exist amongst them, the dependent random measures can be an ideal choice for modeling. One of the propositions of the dependent random measures is that the atoms of the…
Much traditional statistical modelling assumes that the outcome variables of interest are independent of each other when conditioned on the explanatory variables. This assumption is strongly violated in the case of infectious diseases,…
The spread of sexually transmitted diseases (e.g. Chlamydia, Syphilis, Gonorrhea, HIV) across populations is a major concern for scientists and health agencies. In this context, both data collection on sexual contact networks and the…
Simulating the evolution of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic requires a detailed description of the population network, especially for small populations in which individuals can be represented in detail and accuracy. In this…
Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation leverages recency test results to determine the HIV incidence of a population of interest, where recency test uses biomarker profiles to infer whether an HIV-positive individual was "recently"…
This paper considers the problem of mismeasured categorical covariates in the context of regression modeling; if unaccounted for, such misclassification is known to result in misestimation of model parameters. Here, we exploit the fact that…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…
In stopping the spread of infectious diseases, pathogen genomic data can be used to reconstruct transmission events and characterize population-level sources of infection. Most approaches for identifying transmission pairs do not account…
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal…
Mathematical modeling of biological systems is crucial to effectively and efficiently developing treatments for medical conditions that plague humanity. Often, systems of ordinary differential equations are a traditional tool used to…