Related papers: Estimating HIV Epidemics for Sub-National Areas

Network surveys of key populations at risk for HIV are an essential part of the effort to understand how the epidemic spreads and how it can be prevented. Estimation of population values from the sample data has been probematical, however,…

Frequently, empirical studies are plagued with missing data. When the data are missing not at random, the parameter of interest is not identifiable in general. Without additional assumptions, we can derive bounds of the parameters of…

Sexual partnerships that overlap in time (concurrent relationships) may play a significant role in the HIV epidemic, but the precise effect is unclear. We derive edge-based compartmental models of disease spread in idealized dynamic…

Naomi is a spatial evidence synthesis model used to produce district-level HIV epidemic indicators in sub-Saharan Africa. Multiple outcomes of policy interest, including HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy treatment…

This paper considers the problem of modeling epidemic outbreaks in different regions with a common model, that uses additional information about these regions to adjust its parameters and relieve us of mundanity of data collecting, and…

Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…

Recently, a long-term model of HIV infection dynamics was developed to describe the entire time course of the disease. It consists of a large system of ODEs with many parameters, and is expensive to simulate. In the current paper, this…

Planning, implementation and evaluation of public health policies to control the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic require regular monitoring of disease burden. This includes the proportion living with HIV, whether diagnosed or…

In low- and middle-income countries, household surveys are the most reliable data source to examine health and demographic indicators at the subnational level, an exercise in small area estimation. Model-based unit-level models are favored…

In this paper, we propose an original complex network model for an epidemic problem in an heterogeneous geographical area. The complex network is constructed by coupling nonidentical instances of a HIV/AIDS epidemiological model for which a…

Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…

Many epidemic models are naturally defined as individual-based models: where we track the state of each individual within a susceptible population. Inference for individual-based models is challenging due to the high-dimensional state-space…

Molecular HIV Surveillance (MHS) has been described as key to enabling rapid responses to HIV outbreaks. It operates by linking individuals with genetically similar viral sequences, which forms a network. A major limitation of MHS is that…

We propose a new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Global stability of the unique endemic equilibrium is proved. Then, based on data provided by the "Progress Report on the AIDS…

We present a comprehensive statistical methodological framework for estimating contextual exposure to HIV that includes local (grid-cell level) estimation of HIV prevalence and human activity space estimation based on GPS data. The…

Envelope model also known as multivariate regression model was proposed to solve the multiple response regression problems. It measures the linear association between predictors and multiple responses by using the minimal reducing subspace…

One of the cornerstones in combating the HIV pandemic is being able to assess the current state and evolution of local HIV epidemics. This remains a complex problem, as many HIV infected individuals remain unaware of their infection status,…

Mathematical modeling of disease spreading plays a crucial role in understanding, controlling and preventing epidemic outbreaks. In a microscopic description of the propagation of a disease over the complex network of human contacts, the…

While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country,…

Incidence estimation of HIV infection can be performed using recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) results from a cross-sectional sample. This allows practitioners to understand population trends in the HIV epidemic without having to…