Related papers: Estimating HIV Epidemics for Sub-National Areas
We consider a time-delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with education dissemination and study the asymptotic dynamics of solutions as well as the asymptotic behavior of the endemic equilibrium with respect to the amount of information…
We introduce a new data fusion method that utilizes multiple data sources to estimate a smooth, finite-dimensional parameter. Most existing methods only make use of fully aligned data sources that share common conditional distributions of…
In low and middle income countries, household surveys are a valuable source of information for a range of health and demographic indicators. Increasingly, subnational estimates are required for targeting interventions and evaluating…
Many real networks are embedded in a metric space: the interactions among individuals depend on their spatial distances and usually take place among their nearest neighbors. In this paper, we introduce a modified…
Causal inference across multiple data sources offers a promising avenue to enhance the generalizability and replicability of scientific findings. However, data integration methods for time-to-event outcomes, common in biomedical research,…
We consider the edge-based compartmental models for epidemic spread developed in Part I. We show conditions under which simpler models may be substituted for more detailed models, and in so doing we define a hierarchy of epidemic models. In…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…
A standard model for epidemics is the SIR model on a graph. We introduce a simple algorithm that uses the early infection times from a sample path of the SIR model to estimate the parameters this model, and we provide a performance…
The control of opportunistic infections among HIV infected individuals should be one of the major public health concerns in reducing mortality rate of individuals living with HIV/AIDS. In this study a deterministic co-infection mathematical…
We study the global dynamics of a SICA infection model with general incidence rate. The proposed model is calibrated with cumulative cases of infection by HIV-AIDS in Morocco from 1986 to 2015. We first prove that our model is biologically…
We propose a new continuous-discrete mixture regression model which is useful for describing highly censored data. We motivate our investigation based on a case-study in biometry related to measles vaccines in Haiti. In this case-study, the…
Small area estimation (SAE) entails estimating characteristics of interest for domains, often geographical areas, in which there may be few or no samples available. SAE has a long history and a wide variety of methods have been suggested,…
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
With a 676% growth rate in HIV incidence between 2010 and 2021, the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Philippines is the one that is spreading the quickest in the western Pacific. Although the full effects of COVID-19 on HIV services and development…
We present a unified mathematical approach to epidemiological models with parametric heterogeneity, i.e., to the models that describe individuals in the population as having specific parameter (trait) values that vary from one individuals…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…
Introduction. It is well known that social contact patterns differ from country to country. This variation coincides with significant socioeconomic heterogeneity that complicates the design of effective non-pharmaceutical interventions.…
Infectious disease epidemiologists routinely fit stochastic epidemic models to time series data to elucidate infectious disease dynamics, evaluate interventions, and forecast epidemic trajectories. To improve computational tractability,…
Survival analysis is a widely-used technique for analyzing time-to-event data in the presence of censoring. In recent years, numerous survival analysis methods have emerged which scale to large datasets and relax traditional assumptions…