Related papers: Estimating HIV Epidemics for Sub-National Areas
It is the main purpose of this paper to introduce a graph-valued stochastic process in order to model the spread of a communicable infectious disease. The major novelty of the SIR model we promote lies in the fact that the social network on…
We create a network model to study the spread of an epidemic through physically proximate and accidental daily human contacts in a city, and simulate outcomes for two kinds of agents - poor and non-poor. Under non-intervention, peak…
Infectious disease models can be of great use for understanding the underlying mechanisms that influence the spread of diseases and predicting future disease progression. Modeling has been increasingly used to evaluate the potential impact…
The ability to directly record human face-to-face interactions increasingly enables the development of detailed data-driven models for the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases at the scale of individuals. Complete coverage of…
Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain disproportionately affected by HIV, yet optimizing Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) distribution remains a public health challenge. Current guidelines and most modelling studies do not incorporate…
In low-resource settings, prevalence mapping relies on empirical prevalence data from a finite, often spatially sparse, set of surveys of communities within the region of interest, possibly supplemented by remotely sensed images that can…
The estimation from available data of parameters governing epidemics is a major challenge. In addition to usual issues (data often incomplete and noisy), epidemics of the same nature may be observed in several places or over different…
During primary HIV infection, the kinetics of plasma virus concentrations and CD4+ cell counts is very complex. Parametric and nonparametric models have been suggested for fitting repeated measurements of these markers. Alternatively,…
Small area models are mixed effects regression models that link the small areas and borrow strength from similar domains. When the auxiliary variables used in the models are measured with error, small area estimators that ignore the…
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 spreading, the number of studies on the epidemic models increased dramatically. It is important for policymakers to know how the disease will spread and what are the effects of the policies and…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
This paper has been withdrawn. With the advancement of statistical theory and computing power, data sets are providing a greater amount of insight into the problems of today. Statisticians have an ever increasing number of tools to attack…
In this paper, we construct a model to describe the transmission of HIV in a homogeneous host population. By considering the specific mechanism of HIV, we derive a model structured in three successive stages: (i) primary infection, (ii)…
The expansion of tools against HIV transmission has brought increased interest in epidemiological models that can predict the impact of these interventions. The EMOD-HIV model was recently compared to eleven other independently developed…
Longitudinal cohorts to determine the incidence of HIV infection are logistically challenging, so researchers have sought alternative strategies. Recency test methods use biomarker profiles of HIV-infected subjects in a cross-sectional…
Although the interest in the the use of social and information networks has grown, most inferences on networks assume the data collected represents the complete. However, when ignoring missing data, even when missing completely at random,…
An increasing number of control techniques are introduced to HIV infection problem to explore the options of helping clinical testing, optimizing drug treatments and to study the drug resistance situations. In such cases, complete/accurate…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
Infectious disease modeling and forecasting have played a key role in helping assess and respond to epidemics and pandemics. Recent work has leveraged data on disease peak infection and peak hospital incidence to fit compartmental models…
Metapopulation models are commonly used in ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. These models usually entail homogeneity assumptions within patches and study networks of migration between patches to generate insights into conservation of…