Related papers: Estimating HIV Epidemics for Sub-National Areas
As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, increasing numbers of surveillance sites have been established which allows countries to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, e.g. at sub-national level. However, the epidemic models…
Dynamic models have been successfully used in producing estimates of HIV epidemics at the national level due to their epidemiological nature and their ability to estimate prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates simultaneously. Recently,…
Dynamic models have been successfully used in producing estimates of HIV epidemics at national level, due to their epidemiological nature and their ability to simultaneously estimate prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates. Recently, HIV…
Ending the HIV/AIDS pandemic is among the Sustainable Development Goals for the next decade. In order to overcome the gap between the need for care and the available resources, better understanding of HIV epidemics is needed to guide policy…
Understanding historical trends in the epidemic of HIV is important for assessing current and projecting future trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality and for evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of control measures. In…
Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…
Key populations at high risk of HIV infection are critical for understanding and monitoring HIV epidemics, but global estimation is hampered by sparse, uneven data. We analyze data from 199 countries for female sex workers (FSW), men who…
Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) is receiving growing attention from the epidemiological community as a coherent and flexible analytical framework to accommodate a disparate body of evidence available to inform disease incidence…
Random mixing in host populations has been a convenient simplifying assumption in the study of epidemics, but neglects important differences in contact rates within and between population groups. For HIV/AIDS, the assumption of random…
Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is…
In this article, we propose a network spread model for HIV epidemics, wherein each individual is represented by a node of the transmission network and the edges are the connections between individuals along which the infection may spread.…
Local estimates of HIV-prevalence provide information that can be used to target interventions and consequently increase the efficiency of the resources. This closer-to-optimal allocation can lead to better health outcomes, including the…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
When modelling HIV epidemics, it is important to incorporate set-point viral load and its heritability. As set-point viral load distributions can differ significantly amongst epidemics, it is imperative to account for the observed local…
Background: High HIV transmission persists in many U.S. jurisdictions despite prevention efforts. HIV self-testing offers a means to overcome barriers associated with routine laboratory-based testing but carries a risk of increasing…
HIV transmission within serodiscordant couples remains a significant public health challenge, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Estimating the rate of such infection, alongside the rates of introduction of infection from outside the…
Improving health in the most disadvantaged populations requires reliable estimates of health and demographic indicators to inform policy and interventions. Low- and middle-income countries with the largest burden of disease and disability…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
An increasing amount of geo-referenced mobile phone data enables the identification of behavioral patterns, habits and movements of people. With this data, we can extract the knowledge potentially useful for many applications including the…
Compartmental models of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been known that such processes take place on social networks, the assumption of…