Related papers: Predicting catastrophic shifts
What are the signatures of the onset of catastrophe? Here we present the rich system physics characterizing the transition from homeostasis to stochasticity driven breakdown in an experimentally motivated minimal model. Recent…
Synchronization transitions are investigated in coupled chaotic maps. Depending on the relative weight of linear versus nonlinear instability mechanisms associated to the single map two different scenarios for the transition may occur. When…
This paper proposes an early detection method for cluster structural changes. Cluster structure refers to discrete structural characteristics, such as the number of clusters, when data are represented using finite mixture models, such as…
A reliable understanding of the Earth system is essential for the life quality of modern society. Natural hazards are the cause of most life and resource losses. The ability to define the conditions for a sustainable development of…
We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…
The study of chaos has long relied on computationally intensive methods to quantify unpredictability and design control strategies. Recent advances in machine learning, from convolutional neural networks to transformer architectures,…
Unsupervised machine learning methods are used to identify structural changes using the melting point transition in classical molecular dynamics simulations as an example application of the approach. Dimensionality reduction and clustering…
Interacting many-particle systems can self-organize into a rich variety of crystalline structures. While symmetry provides a powerful framework for predicting whether transitions between crystal states are continuous or discontinuous,…
Graphs are commonly used to represent and visualize causal relations. For a small number of variables, this approach provides a succinct and clear view of the scenario at hand. As the number of variables under study increases, the graphical…
In a range of scientific coauthorship networks, transitions emerge in degree distributions, correlations between degrees and local clustering coefficients, etc. The existence of those transitions could be regarded as a result of the…
We introduce a model to study the impact of catastrophes on evolutionary paths. If we do not allow catastrophes the number of changes in the maximum fitness of a population grows logarithmically with respect to time. Allowing catastrophes…
The percolation phase transition in complex network systems attracts much attention and has numerous applications in various research fields. Finite size effects smooth the transition and make it difficult to predict the critical point of…
Whereas the importance of transient dynamics to the functionality and management of complex systems has been increasingly recognized, most of the studies are based on models. Yet in realistic situations the models are often unknown and what…
Bistable biological regulatory systems need to cope with stochastic noise to fine-tune their function close to bifurcation points. Here, we study stability properties of this regime in generic systems to demonstrate that cooperative…
Detecting critical transitions in complex, noisy time-series data is a fundamental challenge across science and engineering. Such transitions may be anticipated by the emergence of a low-dimensional order parameter, whose signature is often…
The process of desertification in the semi-arid climatic zone is considered by many as a catastrophic regime shift, since the positive feedback of vegetation density on growth rates yields a system that admits alternative steady states.…
The world surrounding us is subject to constant change. These changes, frequently described as concept drift, influence many industrial and technical processes. As they can lead to malfunctions and other anomalous behavior, which may be…
Species or population that proliferate faster than others become dominant in numbers. Catalysis allows catalytic sets within a molecular reaction network to dominate the non catalytic parts of the network by processing most of the available…
Determining the reachable set for a given nonlinear control system is crucial for system control and planning. However, computing such a set is impossible if the system's dynamics are not fully known. This paper is motivated by a scenario…
Safety assurance is critical in the planning and control of robotic systems. For robots operating in the real world, the safety-critical design often needs to explicitly address uncertainties and the pre-computed guarantees often rely on…