Related papers: Predicting catastrophic shifts
Real-world complex systems such as ecological communities and neuron networks are essential parts of our everyday lives. These systems are composed of units which interact through intricate networks. The ability to predict sudden changes in…
Non-deterministic chaos is a new dynamical paradigm where a non-deterministic system is influenced by random perturbations to produce the appearance of complexity. The non-determinism is envisioned to occur only at a single point in phase…
Early warning indicators often suffer from the shortness and coarse-graining of real-world time series. Furthermore, the typically strong and correlated noise contributions in real applications are severe drawbacks for statistical measures.…
From changing fashion trends to views on world leaders and economic policies, large-scale shifts in group positions happen regularly and unexpectedly. How can we track these in the wild? How can we characterize them? Existing work has…
Determining critical points of phase transitions from partial data is essential to avoid abrupt system collapses and reducing experimental or computational costs. However, the complex physical systems and phase transition phenomena have…
Statistical early warning signs can be used to identify an approaching bifurcation in stochastic dynamical systems and are now regularly employed in applications concerned with the identification of potential rapid, non-linear change or…
The intensification and increased frequency of weather extremes is emerging as one of the most important aspects of climate change. We use Monte Carlo simulation to understand and predict the consequences of variations in trends (i.e.,…
We demonstrate that turbulent zonal jets, analogous to Jovian ones, which are quasi-stationary, are actually metastable. After extremely long times, they randomly switch to new configurations with a different number of jets. The genericity…
We consider the evolution of the unstable periodic orbit structure of coupled chaotic systems. This involves the creation of a complicated set outside of the synchronization manifold (the emergent set). We quantitatively identify a critical…
Conventional wisdom suggests that environmental noise drives populations toward extinction. In contrast, we report a paradoxical phenomenon in which stochasticity reverses a deterministic tipping point, thereby preventing collapse. Using a…
Control schemes for dynamical systems typically involve stabilizing unstable periodic orbits. In this paper we introduce a new paradigm of control that involves `trapping' the dynamics arbitrarily close to any desired trajectory. This is…
We find that some equilibrium systems and their non-equilibrium counterparts actually show the same jerky response or avalanche behavior on many scales in response to slowly changing external conditions. In other words, their static and…
We discuss the dynamics of finite systems within molecular dynamics models. Signatures of a critical behavior are analyzed and compared to experimental data both in nucleus-nucleus and metallic cluster collisions. We suggest the possibility…
At the tipping point, it is known that small incident can trigger dramatic societal shift. Getting early-warning signals for such changes are valuable to avoid detrimental outcomes such as riots or collapses of nations. However, it is…
Chaotic itinerancy is a universal dynamical concept that describes itinerant motion among many different ordered states through chaotic transition in dynamical systems. Unlike the expectation of the prevalence of chaotic itinerancy in…
We consider a system of clusters made of elementary building blocks, monomers, and evolving via collisions between diffusing monomers and immobile composite clusters. In our model, the cluster-monomer collision can lead to the attachment of…
In line of the intermediate-term monitoring of seismic activity aimed at prediction of the world largest earthquakes the seismic dynamics of the Earth's lithosphere is analysed as a single whole, which is the ultimate scale of the complex…
In many clustering scenes, data samples' attribute values change over time. For such data, we are often interested in obtaining a partition for each time step and tracking the dynamic change of partitions. Normally, a smooth change is…
We investigate numerically the transition between static equilibrium and dynamic surface flow of a 2D cohesionless granular system driven by a continuous gravity loading. This transition is characterized by intermittent local dynamic…
We study the transport properties of nonautonomous chaotic dynamical systems over a finite time duration. We are particularly interested in those regions that remain coherent and relatively non-dispersive over finite periods of time,…