Related papers: Martingale marginals do not always determine conve…
Computation of the marginal likelihood from a simulated posterior distribution is central to Bayesian model selection but is computationally difficult. I argue that the marginal likelihood can be reliably computed from a posterior sample by…
This paper is devoted to a fractional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution. The form of the multivariate distribution is derived assuming that the $n$ partitions of the interval $[0,W_n]$ are independent and identically distributed…
We provide sharp estimates for the distribution function of a martingale transform of the indicator function of an event. They are formulated in terms of Burkholder functions, which are reduced to the already known Bellman functions for…
We investigate convergence of martingales adapted to a given filtration of finite $\sigma$-algebras. To any such filtration we associate a canonical metrizable compact space $K$ such that martingales adapted to the filtration can be…
We consider a change of measure by a martingale $Z_t$ and clarify that in general $1/Z_t$ is only a supermartingale under the changed measure. We then give a necessary and sufficient condition for the event that the limit of the martingale…
We investigate the properties of a discrete-time martingale $\{X_m\}_{m\in \mathbb Z_{\geq 0}}$, where all differences between adjacent random variables are limited to be not more than a constant as a promise. In this situation, it is known…
Predictive recursion is an accurate and computationally efficient algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing densities in mixture models. In semiparametric mixture models, however, the algorithm fails to account for any uncertainty in…
The work [8] established memory loss in the time-dependent (non-random) case of uniformly expanding maps of the interval. Here we find conditions under which we have convergence to the normal distribution of the appropriately scaled…
In a fully general setting, we study the relation between martingale spaces under two locally absolutely continuous probabilities and prove that the martingale representation property (MRP) is always stable under locally absolutely…
Estimating copulas with discrete marginal distributions is challenging, especially in high dimensions, because computing the likelihood contribution of each observation requires evaluating $2^{J}$ terms, with $J$ the number of discrete…
The median probability model (MPM) Barbieri and Berger (2004) is defined as the model consisting of those variables whose marginal posterior probability of inclusion is at least 0.5. The MPM rule yields the best single model for prediction…
There have been controversies among statisticians on (i) what to model and (ii) how to make inferences from models with unobservables. One such controversy concerns the difference between estimation methods for the marginal means not…
We give a unified treatment of the convergence of random series and the rate of convergence of strong law of large numbers in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We consider games with the quadratic hedge…
Two Bayesian models with different sampling densities are said to be marginally equivalent if the joint distribution of observables and the parameter of interest is the same for both models. We discuss marginal equivalence in the general…
In this paper we develop a very general class of bivariate discrete distributions. The basic idea is very simple. The marginals are obtained by taking the random geometric sum of a baseline distribution function. The proposed class of…
Let $(S_0,S_1,...)$ be a supermartingale relative to a nondecreasing sequence of $\sigma$-algebras $H_{\le0},H_{\le1},...$, with $S_0\le0$ almost surely (a.s.) and differences $X_i:=S_i-S_{i-1}$. Suppose that $X_i\le d$ and $\mathsf…
We investigate the conditional distributions of two Banach space valued, jointly Gaussian random variables. In particular, we show that these conditional distributions are again Gaussian and that their means and covariances can be…
Bivariate count data arise in several different disciplines (epidemiology, marketing, sports statistics, etc., to name but a few) and the bivariate Poisson distribution which is a generalization of the Poisson distribution plays an…
We obtain a Bernstein type Gaussian concentration inequality for martingales. Our inequality improves the Azuma-Hoeffding inequality for moderate deviations $x$. Following the work of McDiarmid (1989), Talagrand (1996) and Boucheron, Lugosi…
Consider a high-dimensional linear regression problem, where the number of covariates is larger than the number of observations and the interest is in estimating the conditional variance of the response variable given the covariates. A…