Related papers: Martingale marginals do not always determine conve…
We consider a branching random walk on $\mathbb{R}$ with a stationary and ergodic environment $\xi=(\xi_n)$ indexed by time $n\in\mathbb{N}$. Let $Z_n$ be the counting measure of particles of generation $n$ and $\tilde Z_n(t)=\int…
Probabilistic forecasting models for joint distributions of targets in irregular time series with missing values are a heavily under-researched area in machine learning, with, to the best of our knowledge, only two Models have been…
Dealing with quadratic payments, marginal probability is usually considered ideally constant, maybe for the sake of initial simplicity. Considering the voting scenario depicted in "Quadratic Payments: A Primer" by Vitalik Buterin, firstly…
This paper extends results of Mortimer and Williams (1991) about changes of probability measure up to a random time under the assumptions that all martingales are continuous and that the random time avoids stopping times. We consider…
We discuss a bivariate beta distribution that can model arbitrary beta-distributed marginals with a positive correlation. The distribution is constructed from six independent gamma-distributed random variates. We show how the parameters of…
Given two probability measures $\mu$ and $\nu$ in "convex order" on $\R^d$, we study the profile of one-step martingale plans $\pi$ on $\R^d\times \R^d$ that optimize the expected value of the modulus of their increment among all…
Model selection is an important activity in modern data analysis and the conventional Bayesian approach to this problem involves calculation of marginal likelihoods for different models, together with diagnostics which examine specific…
Certain countably and finitely additive measures can be associated to a given nonnegative supermartingale. Under weak assumptions on the underlying probability space, existence and (non)uniqueness results for such measures are proven.
In this note, we define a Gaussian probability distribution over matrices. We prove some useful properties of this distribution, namely, the fact that marginalization, conditioning, and affine transformations preserve the matrix Gaussian…
We analyze the empirical spectral distribution of random periodic band matrices with correlated entries. The correlation structure we study was first introduced in 2015 by Hochst\"attler, Kirsch and Warzel, who named their setup "almost…
We use the martingale-theoretic approach of game-theoretic probability to incorporate imprecision into the study of randomness. In particular, we define a notion of computable randomness associated with interval, rather than precise,…
We construct a family of non-Gaussian martingales the marginals of which are all Gaussian. We give the predictable quadratic variation of these processes and show they do not have continuous paths. These processes are Markovian and…
We provide a framework which admits a number of ``marginal'' sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms as particular cases -- including the marginal particle filter [Klaas et al., 2005, in: Proceedings of Uncertainty in Artificial…
In this article, we investigate sequences of discontinuous martingales on submanifolds of higher-dimensional Euclidean space. Those sequences naturally arise when we deal with a sequence of harmonic maps with respect to non-local Dirichlet…
This paper gives a complete characterization of infinitely divisible semimartingales, i.e., semimartingales whose finite dimensional distributions are infinitely divisible. An explicit and essentially unique decomposition of such…
Using changes of probability measure developed by \mbox{Grama} and Haeusler (Stochastic Process.\ Appl., 2000), we obtain two generalizations of the deviation inequalities of Lanzinger and Stadtm\"{u}ller (Stochastic Process.\ Appl., 2000)…
We consider a class of martingales on Cartan-Hadamard manifolds that includes Brownian motion on a minimal submanifold. We give sufficient conditions for such martingales to be transient, extending previous results on the transience of…
Let $(Z_n)$ be a supercritical branching process in a random environment $\xi$. We study the convergence rates of the martingale $W_n = Z_n/ E[Z_n| \xi]$ to its limit $W$. The following results about the convergence almost sur (a.s.), in…
First, sufficient conditions are given for a triangular array of random vectors such that the sequence of related random step functions converges towards a (not necessarily time homogeneous) diffusion process. These conditions are weaker…
In this paper we introduce the concept of conic martingales}. This class refers to stochastic processes having the martingale property, but that evolve within given (possibly time-dependent) boundaries. We first review some results about…