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El Ni\~no exhibits distinct Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types which are commonly, but not always consistently, distinguished from each other by different signatures in equatorial climate variability. Here, we propose an…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-11-21 Marc Wiedermann , Alexander Radebach , Jonathan F. Donges , Jürgen Kurths , Reik V. Donner

El Nino is probably the most influential climate phenomenon on interannual time scales. It affects the global climate system and is associated with natural disasters and serious consequences in many aspects of human life. However, the…

Geophysics · Physics 2018-05-08 Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan , Yosef Ashkenazy , Armin Bunde , Shlomo Havlin

The temperatures in different zones in the world do not show significant changes due to El-Nino except when measured in a restricted area in the Pacific Ocean. We find, in contrast, that the dynamics of a climate network based on the same…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2010-12-07 Kazuko Yamasaki , Avi Gozolchiani , Shlomo Havlin

Although anomalous episodical warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific, dubbed El Ni\~no by Peruvian fishermen, has major (and occasionally devastating) impacts around the globe, robust forecasting is still limited to about six months…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-15 Josef Ludescher , Avi Gozolchiani , Mikhail I. Bogachev , Armin Bunde , Shlomo Havlin , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

El Ni\~{n}o is a typical example of a coupled atmosphere--ocean phenomenon, but it is unclear whether it can be described quantitatively by a correlation between relevant climate events. To provide clarity on this issue, we developed a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-02-14 Nozomi Sugiura , Shinya Kouketsu

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding. Recently, we have developed several statistical approaches for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-17 Josef Ludescher , Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan , Armin Bunde , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

This paper proposes a novel framework for enhancing the prediction accuracy and lead time of El Ni\~no events, crucial for mitigating their global climatic, economic, and societal impacts. Traditional prediction models often rely on oceanic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Viet Trinh , Ha-Vy Luu , Quoc-Khiem Nguyen-Pham , Hung Tong , Thanh-Huyen Tran , Hoai-Nam Nguyen Dang

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial ocean/atmosphere Pacific. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-07-12 John Guckenheimer , Andrew Roberts , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra

The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-14 Tommaso Proietti , Alessandro Giovannelli

On average once every four years, the Tropical Pacific warms considerably during events called El Ni\~no, leading to weather disruptions over many regions on Earth. Recent machine-learning approaches to El Ni\~no prediction, in particular…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-06-19 G. Lancia , I. J. Goede , C. Spitoni , H. A. Dijkstra

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-10-10 John Guckenheimer , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra , Andrew Roberts

El Ni\~no episodes are part of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the strongest driver of interannual climate variability, and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Previously we…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-04 A. Bunde , J. Ludescher , H. J. Schellnhuber

We construct directed and weighted climate networks based on near surface air temperature to investigate the global impacts of El Nino and La Nina. We find that regions which are characterized by higher positive or negative network in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-09-05 Jingfang Fan , Jun Meng , Yosef Ashkenazy , Shlomo Havlin

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events like droughts and flooding. Additionally, ENSO influences the mean global temperature with…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-04 J. Ludescher , J. Meng , J. Fan , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber

Complex network theory provides a powerful toolbox for studying the structure of statistical interrelationships between multiple time series in various scientific disciplines. In this work, we apply the recently proposed climate network…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-11-26 Alexander Radebach , Reik V. Donner , Jakob Runge , Jonathan F. Donges , Jürgen Kurths

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently, we have developed two approaches…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-31 Josef Ludescher , Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan

This paper studies the chaotic behavior of hydrosphere and its influence on global weather and climate. We give mathematical arguments for the sea surface temperature (SST) to be unpredictable over the global ocean. The impact of SST…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-01-04 Marat Akhmet , Mehmet Onur Fen , Ejaily Milad Alejaily

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Depending on the region of maximal warming,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-29 J. Ludescher , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber

El Nino is an extreme weather event featuring unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is characterized by heavy rains and floods that negatively affect the economic activities of the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-06-09 Hugo Alatrista-Salas , Vincent Gauthier , Miguel Nunez-del-Prado , Monique Becker

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability plays a key role in the global weather and climate system, with phenomena such as El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation regarded as a major source of interannual climate variability at the global scale.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-02-22 John Taylor , Ming Feng
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