Related papers: A Climate Network Based Stability Index for El Ni\…
A number of computer-generated models of water, methanol and ethanol are considered at room temperature and ambient pressure, and also as a function of temperature (for water and ethanol), and the potential model (for water only). The…
This paper investigates the impact of observations on atmospheric state estimation in weather forecasting systems using graph neural networks (GNNs) and explainability methods. We integrate observation and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)…
The Earth's climate system is a classical example of a multiscale, multiphysics dynamical system with an extremely large number of active degrees of freedom, exhibiting variability on scales ranging from micrometers and seconds in cloud…
A non-autonomous stochastic dynamical model approach is developed to describe the seasonal to interannual variability of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We determine the model coefficients by systematic statistical estimations…
The 2014-2015 "Monster"/"Super" El Ni\~no failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Ni\~no, El Ni\~no Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this…
Decisions related to electric power systems planning and operations rely on assumptions and insights informed by historic weather data and records of past performance. Evolving climate trends are, however, changing the energy use patterns…
Forecasting Heavy Precipitation Events (HPE) in the Mediterranean is crucial but challenging due to the complexity of the processes involved. In this context, Artificial Intelligence methods have recently proven to be competitive with…
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…
The main result relates to structured robust stability analysis of an input-output model for networks with link uncertainty. It constitutes a collection of integral quadratic constraints, which together imply robust stability of the…
Advances in deep learning methods for weather forecasting are creating opportunities to computationally explore the potential for steering or control of extreme weather trajectories for societal risk reduction. We present initial…
We study the relationship between the El Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon in ensemble simulations from state-of-the-art climate models, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community…
Based on nonlinear prediction and information theory, vertical heterogeneity of predictability and information loss rate was obtained over the Northern Hemisphere. In seasonal to interannual time scales, the predictability is low in lower…
Ocean dynamics constitute a source of incertitude in determining the ocean's role in complex climatic phenomena. Current observation systems have limitations in achieving sufficiently statistical precision for three-dimensional oceanic…
The increasingly populated cities of the 21st Century face the challenge of being sustainable and resilient spaces for their inhabitants. However, climate change, among other problems, makes these objectives difficult to achieve. The Urban…
Extreme weather events, rare yet profoundly impactful, are often accompanied by severe conditions. Increasing global temperatures are poised to exacerbate these events, resulting in greater human casualties, economic losses, and ecological…
The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
With climate change, we are expecting more frequent extreme weather events in many regions worldwide. These events can trigger disruptive, deadly natural hazards, which catch the attention of the media and raise awareness in citizens and…
Future sea-level rise poses nontrivial risks for many coastal communities. Managing these risks often relies on consensus projections like those provided by the IPCC. Yet, there is a growing awareness that the surrounding uncertainties may…
Understanding the relationship between complexity and stability in large dynamical systems -- such as ecosystems -- remains a key open question in complexity theory which has inspired a rich body of work developed over more than fifty…