Related papers: A Climate Network Based Stability Index for El Ni\…
Very strong El Ni\~no events occur sporadically every 10-20 years. The origin of this bursting behavior still remains elusive. Using a simplified 3-dimensional dynamical model of the tropical Pacific climate system, which captures the El…
We analyze the stability of a low-order coupled sea ice and climate model and extract the essential physics governing the time scales of response as a function of greenhouse gas forcing. Under present climate conditions the stability is…
The North Pacific exhibits patterns of low-frequency variability on the intra-annual to decadal time scales, which manifest themselves in both model data and the observational record, and prediction of such low-frequency modes of…
Over the last few decades, climate scientists have devoted much effort to the development of large numerical models of the atmosphere and the ocean. While there is no question that such models provide important and useful information on…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation global (ENSO) imprint on sea surface temperature comes in many guises. To identify its tropical fingerprints and impacts on the rest of the climate system, we propose a global approach based on archetypal…
Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…
A model-data inversion is applied to a very large observational dataset collected in the Southern Ocean north of the Ross Sea during late autumn to early winter, producing estimates of the frequency-dependent rate of dissipation by sea ice.…
We analyse the transitions between established phases of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by surveying the daily data of the Southern Oscillation Index from an entropic viewpoint using the framework of stochastic Statistical…
Climate system teleconnections are crucial for improving climate predictability, but difficult to quantify. Standard approaches to identify teleconnections are often based on correlations between time series. Here we present a novel method…
To advance automated detection of extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity with climate change, we explore modifications to a novel light-weight Context Guided convolutional neural network architecture trained…
Sea surface temperature (SST) is a fundamental determinant of global climate dynamics and economic activity. Reliable projections of future SST patterns depend critically on a rigorous characterization of the underlying spatial random…
Monitoring the dynamics of global land-ocean cover is fundamental for regulating the Earth's climate and sustaining terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, existing datasets and research often exhibit limitations in temporal resolution…
Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…
Due to insufficient local area information, numerical weather prediction (NWP) may yield biases for specific areas. Previous studies correct biases mainly by employing handcrafted features or applying data-driven methods intuitively,…
Neural networks are increasingly being used in a variety of settings to predict wind direction and speed, two of the most important factors for estimating the potential power output of a wind farm. However, these predictions are arguably of…
Ice storms pose significant damage risk to electric utility infrastructure. In an attempt to improve storm response and minimize costs, energy companies have supported the development of ice accretion forecasting techniques utilizing…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscale stochastic model to show that the observed ENSO complexity can be…
Quantifying the risk of global warming exceeding critical targets such as 2.0 K requires reliable projections of uncertainty as well as best estimates of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST). However, uncertainty bands on GMST projections…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…