Detecting climate teleconnections with Granger causality
Abstract
Climate system teleconnections are crucial for improving climate predictability, but difficult to quantify. Standard approaches to identify teleconnections are often based on correlations between time series. Here we present a novel method leveraging Granger causality, which can infer/detect relationships between any two fields. We compare teleconnections identified by correlation and Granger causality at different timescales. We find that both Granger causality and correlation consistently recover known seasonal precipitation responses to the sea surface temperature pattern associated with the El Ni\~{n}o Southern Oscillation. Such findings are robust across multiple time resolutions. In addition, we identify candidates for unexplored teleconnection responses.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2012.03848,
title = {Detecting climate teleconnections with Granger causality},
author = {Filipi N Silva and Didier A. Vega-Oliveros and Xiaoran Yan and Alessandro Flammini and Filippo Menczer and Filippo Radicchi and Ben Kravitz and Santo Fortunato},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2012.03848},
year = {2021}
}
Comments
13 pages, 11 figures, code can be found in https://github.com/filipinascimento/teleconnectionsgranger