Related papers: A Climate Network Based Stability Index for El Ni\…
The skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts is assessed worldwide -grid point by grid point- for the forty-years period 1961-2000. To this aim, the ENSEMBLES multi-model hindcast is considered. Although predictability varies with region,…
Many parts of the Earth system are thought to have multiple stable equilibrium states, with the potential for rapid and sometimes catastrophic shifts between them. The most common frameworks for analyzing stability changes, however, require…
The fact that the Earth climate is a highly complex dynamical system is well-known. In the last few decades a lot of effort has been focused on understanding how climate phenomena in one geographical region affects the climate of other…
The wind energy community is gradually recognizing the significance of atmospheric stability in both power production and structural loading. However, estimating stability requires temperature gradient data which are not commonly measured…
The El Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts profound influence on global climate variability, yet its prediction remains a grand challenge. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved forecasting skill, but the…
The complex network framework has been successfully applied to the analysis of climatological data, providing, for example, a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying reduced predictability during El Ni\~no or La Ni\~na years.…
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent interannual climate phenomena. An early and reliable ENSO forecasting remains a crucial goal, due to its serious implications for economy, society, and ecosystem. Despite…
Inferring the properties of exoplanets from their atmospheres, while confronting low resolution and low signal-to-noise in the context of the quantities we want to derive, poses rigorous demands upon the data collected from observation.…
The skill of current predictions of the warm phase of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduces significantly beyond a lag of six months. In this paper, we aim to increase this prediction skill at lags up to one year. The new method…
Considering the interdependencies between water and electricity use is critical for ensuring conservation measures are successful in lowering the net water and electricity use in a city. This water-electricity demand nexus will become even…
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
The impact of meteorological observations on weather forecasting varies with sensor type, location, time, and other environmental factors. Thus, quantitative analysis of observation impacts is crucial for effective and efficient development…
Anomalies during an El Nino are dominated by a single, irregularly oscillating, mode. Equatorial dynamics has been linked to delayed-oscillator models of this mode. Usually, the El Nino mode is regarded as an unstable mode of the coupled…
An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
There has been a large number of reported cases of the occurrence of Zika in different countries in 2016 and it is necessary to develop an early warning system to initiate preventive campaigns against the disease. A potential early warning…
Many record-breaking climate extremes arise from both greenhouse gas-induced warming and natural climate variability. Marine cloud brightening, a solar geoengineering strategy originally proposed to reduce long-term warming, could…
We propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system, relying on the nonlinear mutual information of time series analysis and betweenness centrality of complex network…
In a statistical analysis of more than a century of data we find a strong connection between strong warm El Nino winter events and high spring precipitation in a band from Southern England eastwards into Asia. This relationship is an…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…