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Ebola virus disease is a severe hemorrhagic fever with rapid transmission through infected fluids and surfaces. We develop a fractional-order model using Caputo derivatives to capture memory effects in disease dynamics. An eight-compartment…
Connecting the different scales of epidemic dynamics, from individuals to communities to nations, remains one of the main challenges of disease modeling. Here, we revisit one of the largest public health efforts deployed against a localized…
2014 Ebola outbreaks can offer lessons for the COVOID-19 and the ongoing variant surveillance and the use of multi method approach to detect public health preparedness. We are increasingly seeing a delay and disconnect of the transmission…
West Africa is currently experiencing a severe outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD). As part of the international effort to address this outbreak, the United States has committed to building specialized Ebola treatment facilities with 1700…
Much effort has been directed towards using mathematical models to understand and predict contagious disease, in particular Ebola outbreaks. Classical SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) compartmental models capture well the dynamics of…
Stochastic compartmental models are important tools for understanding the course of infectious diseases epidemics in populations and in prospective evaluation of intervention policies. However, calculating the likelihood for discretely…
Since the largest 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa, understanding of Ebola virus infection has improved, notably the involvement of innate immune mediators. Amongst them, collectins are important players in the…
Containing the recent West African outbreak of Ebola virus (EBOV) required the deployment of substantial global resources. Operationally, health workers and surveillance teams treated cases, collected genetic samples, and tracked case…
We investigate the spreading of information through Twitter messaging related to the spread of Ebola in western Africa using epidemic based dynamic models. Diffusive spreading leads to NLPDE models and fixed point analysis yields systems of…
We extend the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to a network-based framework where the degree distribution of nodes follows a Poisson distribution. This extension incorporates an additional parameter representing the mean…
The spreading of infectious diseases with and without immunization of individuals can be modeled by stochastic processes that exhibit a transition between an active phase of epidemic spreading and an absorbing phase, where the disease dies…
We present a method for estimating epidemic parameters in network-based stochastic epidemic models when the total number of infections is assumed to be small. We illustrate the method by reanalyzing the data from the 2014 Democratic…
Mathematical models of epidemiological systems enable investigation of and predictions about potential disease outbreaks. However, commonly used models are often highly simplified representations of incredibly complex systems. Because of…
The recent global surge in COVID-19 infections has been fueled by new SARS-CoV-2 variants, namely Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, etc. The molecular mechanism underlying such surge is elusive due to 4,653 non-degenerate mutations on the spike…
Prominently accountable for the upsurge of COVID-19 cases as the world attempts to recover from the previous two waves, Omicron has further threatened the conventional therapeutic approaches. Omicron is the fifth variant of concern (VOC),…
The increasing spread of COVID-19, caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, raises concerns about the extent to which mutations have occurred across the viral genome. We present a partial replication of an earlier 2021 study by Wang, R. et al. that…
The latest severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant Omicron (B.1.1.529) has ushered panic responses around the world due to its contagious and vaccine escape mutations. The essential infectivity and antibody…
Phylogenetic analyses based on small to moderately sized sets of sequential data lead to overestimating mutation rates in influenza hemagglutinin (HA) by at least an order of magnitude. Two major underlying reasons are: the incomplete…
We study how the interplay between the memory immune response and pathogen mutation affects epidemic dynamics in two related models. The first explicitly models pathogen mutation and individual memory immune responses, with contacted…
In 2022 new subvariants of Coronavirus appeared in South Africa, and spread rapidly to other parts of the world. The effects of selective evolution on increasing the already high contagiousness of CoV19 up to Omicron were previously…