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The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leonne and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it…
Mutations sometimes increase contagiousness for evolving pathogens. During an epidemic, scientists use viral genome data to infer a shared evolutionary history and connect this history to geographic spread. We propose a model that directly…
The Ebola virus disease is a severe viral haemorrhagic fever syndrome caused by Ebola virus. This disease is transmitted by direct contact with the body fluids of an infected person and objects contaminated with virus or infected animals,…
Background: While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics…
Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of…
We present a mathematical analysis of the early detection of Ebola virus. The propagation of the virus is analysed by using a Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model. In order to provide useful predictions about the potential…
A model of an Ebola epidemic is developed with infected individuals structured according to disease age. The transmission of the infection is tracked by disease age through an initial incubation (exposed) phase, followed by an infectious…
A better characterization of the early growth dynamics of an epidemic is needed to dissect the important drivers of disease transmission. We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak…
The 2014-2015 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa was the largest ever recorded, representing a fundamental shift in Ebola epidemiology with unprecedented spatiotemporal complexity. We developed spatial transmission models…
The 2014 Ebola outbreak in west Africa raised many questions about the control of infectious disease in an increasingly connected global society. Limited availability of contact information made contact tracing difficult or impractical in…
As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence…
As of October 12, 2018, 211 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict…
The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of…
We present a comparison between two different mathematical models used in the description of the Ebola virus propagation currently occurring in West Africa. In order to improve the prediction and the control of the propagation of the virus,…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
The most recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we…
More virulent strains of influenza virus subtypes H1N1 appeared widely in 2007 and H3N2 in 2011, and especially 2013-4, when the effectiveness of the H3N2 vaccine decreased nearly to zero. The amino acid differences of neuraminidase from…
The coexistence of different viral strains (quasispecies) within the same host are nowadays observed for a growing number of viruses, most notably HIV, Marburg and Ebola, but the conditions for the formation and survival of new strains have…
More virulent strains of influenza virus subtypes H1N1 appeared in 2007 and H3N2 in 2011. The amino acid differences from prior less virulent strains appear to be small when tabulated through sequence alignments and counting site identities…
Contact tracing is an important control strategy for containing Ebola epidemics. From a theoretical perspective, explicitly incorporating contact tracing with disease dynamics presents challenges, and population level effects of contact…