Related papers: Critical Behaviour of the Partner Model
We present an analysis of six deterministic models for epidemic spreading. The evolution of the number of individuals of each class is given by ordinary differential equations of the first order in time, which are set up by using the laws…
The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$ is an important and widely used concept in the study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of various $R_0$ estimates in systematic reviews aimed at…
Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…
For a heterogeneous host population, the basic reproduction number of an infectious disease, $\cR_0$, is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation operator (NGO). The threshold properties of the basic reproduction number are…
We show that a certain model for the spread of an infection has a phase transition in the recuperation rate. The model is as follows: There are particles or individuals of type A and type B, interpreted as healthy and infected,…
The stacked contact process is a stochastic model for the spread of an infection within a population of hosts located on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice. Regardless of whether they are healthy or infected, hosts give birth and die at…
This paper describes a mathematical model for the spread of a virus through an isolated population of a given size. The model uses three, color-coded components, called molecules (red for infected and still contagious; green for infected,…
This paper studies the spread dynamics of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and varying population size, which is formulated as a piecewise deterministic Markov process. A threshold dynamic determined by the basic…
This paper studies the distribution function of the time of extinction of a subcritical epidemic, when a large enough proportion of the population has been immunized and/or the infectivity of the infectious individuals has been reduced, so…
Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models used in mathematical epidemiology assume explicitly or implicitly large populations. For the study of infections in a hospital this is an extremely restrictive assumption as typically a hospital…
Using a probability of novel encounter derived from a physical model, we augment the SIR compartmental model for disease spread. Scenarios with the same initial trajectories and identical $R_0$ values can diverge greatly depending on the…
We present a model of contagion that unifies and generalizes existing models of the spread of social influences and micro-organismal infections. Our model incorporates individual memory of exposure to a contagious entity (e.g., a rumor or…
The critical properties of the stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected model on a square lattice is studied by numerical simulations and by the use of scaling relations. In the presence of an infected individual, a susceptible becomes…
Accurate epidemic forecasting requires models that account for the layered and heterogeneous nature of real social interactions. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal R_0$ calculated from models that assume homogeneous mixing or…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
In this work we study a modified Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model in which the infection rate $\lambda$ decays exponentially with the number of reinfections $n$, saturating after $n=l$. We find a critical decaying rate…
By means of numerical simulations and epidemic analysis, the transition point of the stochastic, asynchronous Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model on a square lattice is found to be c_0=0.1765005(10), where c is the probability a…
A reaction-diffusion model is investigated to understand infective environments in a man-environment-man epidemic model. The free boundary is introduced to describe the expanding front of an infective environment induced by fecally-orally…
Motivated by analogies between the spreading of human-to-human infections and of chemical processes, we develop a comprehensive model that accounts both for infection and for transport. In this analogy, the three different populations of…