Related papers: The Mythical Swing Voter
How should one combine noisy information from diverse sources to make an inference about an objective ground truth? This frequently recurring, normative question lies at the core of statistics, machine learning, policy-making, and everyday…
In the age of big data, nonprobability surveys are becoming increasingly abundant. Data integration techniques involving both probability and nonprobability surveys are being extensively used for providing improved estimates for finite…
The voter model consists of a set of agents whose opinion is a binary variable. At each time step, an agent along with a social neighbor is selected and the agent imitates the social neighbor at the next time step. In this paper, we study a…
Representative risk estimation is fundamental to clinical decision-making. However, risks are often estimated from non-representative epidemiologic studies, which usually underrepresent minorities. "Model-based" methods use population…
Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to stabilize estimations for one or more population variables of interest that are performed using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective sample size.…
Multimodal regression estimation methods are introduced for regression models involving circular response and/or covariate. The regression estimators are based on the maximization of the conditional densities of the response variable over…
Respondent-driven sampling is a widely-used network sampling technique, designed to sample from hard-to-reach populations. Estimation from the resulting samples is an area of active research, with software available to compute at least four…
Polls posted on social media have emerged in recent years as an important tool for estimating public opinion, e.g., to gauge public support for business decisions and political candidates in national elections. Here, we examine nearly two…
A voting center is in charge of collecting and aggregating voter preferences. In an iterative process, the center sends comparison queries to voters, requesting them to submit their preference between two items. Voters might discuss the…
The well-studied problem of statistical rank aggregation has been applied to comparing sports teams, information retrieval, and most recently to data generated by human judgment. Such human-generated rankings may be substantially different…
We consider a social choice problem where only a small number of people out of a large population are sufficiently available or motivated to vote. A common solution to increase participation is to allow voters use a proxy, that is, transfer…
Opinion polls have now become a very important component of society because they are now a defacto component of our daily news cycle and because their results influence governments and business in ways which are not always obvious to us.…
Advertisement and propaganda have changed continuously in the past decades, mainly due to the people's interactions at online platforms and social networks, and operate nowadays reaching a highly specific online audience instead targeting…
We propose a probabilistic model to aggregate the answers of respondents answering multiple-choice questions. The model does not assume that everyone has access to the same information, and so does not assume that the consensus answer is…
We study the asymptotic macroscopic properties of the mixed majority-minority game, modeling a population in which two types of heterogeneous adaptive agents, namely ``fundamentalists'' driven by differentiation and ``trend-followers''…
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years,…
In recent years, Twitter data related to political trends have tentatively been used to make predictions (poll) about several electoral events. Given $q$ candidates for an election and a time-series of Twitts (short messages), one can…
Coalitional manipulation in voting is considered to be any scenario in which a group of voters decide to misrepresent their vote in order to secure an outcome they all prefer to the first outcome of the election when they vote honestly. The…
The rebellious voter model, introduced by Sturm and Swart (2008), is a variation of the standard, one-dimensional voter model, in which types that are locally in the minority have an advantage. It is related, both through duality and…
Respondent-driven sampling is a form of link-tracing network sampling, which is widely used to study hard-to-reach populations, often to estimate population proportions. Previous treatments of this process have used a with-replacement…