Related papers: The Mythical Swing Voter
It is well known that no reasonable voting rule is strategyproof. Moreover, the common Plurality rule is particularly prone to strategic behavior of the voters and empirical studies show that people often vote strategically in practice.…
Statistical hypothesis testing serves as statistical evidence for scientific innovation. However, if the reported results are intentionally biased, hypothesis testing no longer controls the rate of false discovery. In particular, we study…
Survey sampling is concerned with the estimation of finite population parameters. In practice, survey data suffer from item nonresponse, which is commonly handled through imputation, i.e., replacing missing values with predicted values. As…
While the number and variety of models to explain opinion exchange dynamics is huge, attempts to justify the model results using empirical data are relatively rare. As linking to real data is essential for establishing model credibility,…
The Hegselmann--Krause model is a prototypical model for opinion dynamics. It models the stochastic time evolution of an agent's or voter's opinion in response to the opinion of other like-minded agents. The Hegselmann--Krause model only…
The dynamics of political opinion are a critical component of modern society with large-scale implications for the evolution of intra- and international political discourse and policy. Here we utilize recent high-resolution survey data to…
Some political strategies to win elections over the last years were based heavily on fomenting general distrust in information institutions and favoring distrustful sources. The misinformation pandemic has the straightforward consequence…
Engaging with dissenting views, fostering productive disagreements or strategic anticonformity can benefit organizations as it challenges the status quo. The question arises, however, whether such strategic anticonformity ultimately leads…
Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a computationally efficient indirect estimation method that can quickly produce improved population-adjusted estimates with limited data. Recent computational advancements allow…
Prediction markets are well-studied in the case where predictions are probabilities or expectations of future random variables. In 2008, Lambert, et al. proposed a generalization, which we call "scoring rule markets" (SRMs), in which…
Online consumer reviews reflect the testimonials of real people, unlike advertisements. As such, they have critical impact on potential consumers, and indirectly on businesses. According to a Harvard study (Luca 2011), +1 rise in…
Ordinal user-provided ratings across multiple items are frequently encountered in both scientific and commercial applications. Whilst recommender systems are known to do well on these type of data from a predictive point of view, their…
Health disparity research often evaluates health outcomes across demographic subgroups. Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a popular approach for small subgroup estimation due to its ability to stabilize estimates by…
Nonresponse is common in surveys. When the response probability of a survey variable $Y$ depends on $Y$ through an observed auxiliary categorical variable $Z$ (i.e., the response probability of $Y$ is conditionally independent of $Y$ given…
Opinion dynamics on social networks have been received considerable attentions in recent years. Nevertheless, just a few works have theoretically analyzed the condition in which a certain opinion can spread in the whole structured…
Can Large Language Models (LLMs) accurately predict election outcomes? While LLMs have demonstrated impressive performance in various domains, including healthcare, legal analysis, and creative tasks, their ability to forecast elections…
We study the problem of reconstructing the probability measure of the Curie-Weiss model from a sample of the voting behaviour of a subset of the population. While originally used to study phase transitions in statistical mechanics, the…
We design a recursive measure of voting power based on partial as well as full voting efficacy. Classical measures, by contrast, incorporate solely full efficacy. We motivate our design by representing voting games using a division lattice…
We consider inference from non-random samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized…
Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to reduce the estimation variance for one or more population variables of interest that are estimated using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective…