Related papers: The Mythical Swing Voter
Elections, the cornerstone of democratic societies, are usually regarded as unpredictable due to the complex interactions that shape them at different levels. In this work, we show that voter turnouts contain crucial information that can be…
With the ubiquitous availability of unstructured data, growing attention is paid as how to adjust for selection bias in such non-probability samples. The majority of the robust estimators proposed by prior literature are either fully or…
In this paper we study the impact of news media and public surveys on the electoral campaigns for political competitions. We present an agent-based model that addresses the effective influence of surveys in orienting the opinions of voters…
We study a model of temporal voting where there is a fixed time horizon, and at each round the voters report their preferences over the available candidates and a single candidate is selected. Prior work has adapted popular notions of…
We study the voting game where agents' preferences are endogenously decided by the information they receive, and they can collaborate in a group. We show that strategic voting behaviors have a positive impact on leading to the ``correct''…
Nowadays, in societies threatened by atomization, selfishness, short-term thinking, and alienation from political life, there is a renewed debate about classical questions concerning the quality of democratic decision-making. In this work a…
In this paper we present a technique to couple non-traditional data with statistics based on survey data, in order to partially correct for the bias produced by non-random sample selections. All major social media platforms represent huge…
Large language models exhibit societal biases associated with demographic information, including race, gender, and others. Endowing such language models with personalities based on demographic data can enable generating opinions that align…
Election polls play a critical role in political discussions by probing public opinion and enabling political parties to assess their performance before elections. However, traditional polling methods sometimes fail to predict election…
This paper gives game-theoretic versions of several results on "merging of opinions" obtained in measure-theoretic probability and algorithmic randomness theory. An advantage of the game-theoretic versions over the measure-theoretic results…
The use of big data in official statistics and the applied sciences is accelerating, but statistics computed using only big data often suffer from substantial selection bias. This leads to inaccurate estimation and invalid statistical…
With nonignorable nonresponse, an effective method to construct valid estimators of population parameters is to use a covariate vector called instrument that can be excluded from the nonresponse propensity but are still useful covariate…
Large language models are increasingly used to predict human preferences in both scientific and business endeavors, yet current approaches rely exclusively on analyzing model outputs without considering the underlying mechanisms. Using…
We consider two-alternative elections where voters' preferences depend on a state variable that is not directly observable. Each voter receives a private signal that is correlated to the state variable. Voters may be "contingent" with…
Online social networks are used to diffuse opinions and ideas among users, enabling a faster communication and a wider audience. The way in which opinions are conditioned by social interactions is usually called social influence. Social…
We propose a stochastic model of opinion exchange in networks. A finite set of agents is organized in a fixed network structure. There is a binary state of the world and each agent receives a private signal on the state. We model beliefs as…
This paper introduces a new model of continuous opinion dynamics with random noise. The model belongs to the broad class of so called bounded confidence models. It differs from other popular bounded confidence models by the update rule,…
We investigate opinion dynamics in a fully-connected system, consisting of $n$ identical and anonymous agents, where one of the opinions (which is called correct) represents a piece of information to disseminate. In more detail, one source…
The flourishing of fake news is favored by recommendation algorithms of online social networks which, based on previous users activity, provide content adapted to their preferences and so create filter bubbles. We introduce an analytically…
Random sampling is an essential tool in the processing and transmission of data. It is used to summarize data too large to store or manipulate and meet resource constraints on bandwidth or battery power. Estimators that are applied to the…