Related papers: The Mythical Swing Voter
Surveys usually suffer from non-response, which decreases the effective sample size. Item non-response is typically handled by means of some form of random imputation if we wish to preserve the distribution of the imputed variable. This…
Prediction performance does not always reflect the estimation behaviour of a method. High error in estimation may necessarily not result in high prediction error, but can lead to an unreliable prediction if test data lie in a slightly…
In certain situations that shall be undoubtedly more and more common in the Big Data era, the datasets available are so massive that computing statistics over the full sample is hardly feasible, if not unfeasible. A natural approach in this…
This work analyses surprising elections, and attempts to quantify the notion of surprise in elections. A voter is surprised if their estimate of the winner (assumed to be based on a combination of the preferences of their social connections…
In this paper we have considered the problem of estimating the population mean in systematic sampling using information on an auxiliary variable in presence of non response. Some modified ratio, product and difference type estimators in…
A key tool to carry out inference on the unknown copula when modeling a continuous multivariate distribution is a nonparametric estimator known as the empirical copula. One popular way of approximating its sampling distribution consists of…
In most circumstances, probability sampling is the only way to ensure unbiased inference about population quantities where a complete census is not possible. As we enter the era of 'big data', however, nonprobability samples, whose sampling…
Large language models (LLMs) offer unprecedented opportunities for analyzing social phenomena at scale. This paper demonstrates the value of LLMs in psychological measurement by (1) compiling the first large-scale dataset of election rumors…
We proposed a probabilistic approach to joint modeling of participants' reliability and humans' regularity in crowdsourced affective studies. Reliability measures how likely a subject will respond to a question seriously; and regularity…
Despite extensive theoretical research on proportionality in approval-based multiwinner voting, its impact on which committees and candidates can be selected in practice remains poorly understood. We address this gap by (i) analyzing the…
We introduce time variation in the flip-rates of the Voter Model. This type of generalisation is relevant to models of ageing in language change, allowing the representation of changes in speakers' learning rates over their lifetime and may…
Despite many examples to the contrary, most models of elections assume that rules determining the winner will be followed. We present a model where elections are solely a public signal of the incumbent popularity, and citizens can protests…
A model-assisted semiparametric method of estimating finite population totals is investigated to improve the precision of survey estimators by incorporating multivariate auxiliary information. The proposed superpopulation model is a…
We study the contrarian voter model for opinion formation in a society under the influence of an external oscillating propaganda and stochastic noise. Each agent of the population can hold one of two possible opinions on a given issue…
We briefly introduce a new promising field of applications of statistical physics, opinion dynamics, where the systems at study are social groups or communities and the atoms/spins are the individuals (or agents) belonging to such groups.…
We present numerical simulations of a model of social influence, where the opinion of each agent is represented by a binary vector. Agents adjust their opinions as a result of random encounters, whenever the difference between opinions is…
Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…
A key promise of democratic voting is that, by accounting for all constituents' preferences, it produces decisions that benefit the constituency overall. It is alarming, then, that all deterministic voting rules have unbounded distortion:…
We elaborate on a deconvolution method, used to estimate the empirical distribution of unknown parameters, as suggested recently by Efron (2013). It is applied to estimating the empirical distribution of the 'sampling probabilities' of m…
While LLMs have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in text generation and reasoning, their ability to simulate human decision-making -- particularly in political contexts -- remains an open question. However, modeling voter behavior…