Related papers: On the Frequency of Drawdowns for Brownian Motion …

In experiment, the multiplicity distributions of inelastic processes are truncated due to finite energy, insufficient statistics or special choice of events. It is shown that the moments of such truncated multiplicity distributions possess…

Fractional Brownian motion is a self-affine, non-Markovian and translationally invariant generalization of Brownian motion, depending on the Hurst exponent $H$. Here we investigate fractional Brownian motion where both the starting and the…

Consider a two-type reducible branching Brownian motion in which particles' diffusion coefficients and branching rates are influenced by their types. Here reducible means that type 1 particles can produce particles of type 1 and type 2, but…

Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on…

Brownian escape is key to a wealth of physico-chemical processes, including polymer folding, and information storage. The frequency of thermally activated energy barrier crossings is assumed to generally decrease exponentially with…

We study tail risk dynamics in high-frequency financial markets and their connection with trading activity and market uncertainty. We introduce a dynamic extreme value regression model accommodating both stationary and local unit-root…

To be effective in sequential data processing, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are required to keep track of past events by creating memories. While the relation between memories and the network's hidden state dynamics was established over…

We consider a Brownian motion with linear drift that splits at fixed time points into a fixed number of branches, which may depend on the branching point. For this process, which we shall refer to as the Brownian decision tree, we…

We derive P(M,t_m), the joint probability density of the maximum M and the time t_m at which this maximum is achieved for a class of constrained Brownian motions. In particular, we provide explicit results for excursions, meanders and…

A natural extension of a right-continuous integer-valued random walk is one which can jump to the right by one or two units. First passage times above a given fixed level then admit a tractable Laplace transform (probability generating…

Although higher-order interactions are known to affect the typical state of dynamical processes giving rise to new collective behavior, how they drive the emergence of rare events and fluctuations is still an open problem. We investigate…

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are rich models for the processing of sequential data. Recent work on advancing the state of the art has been focused on the optimization or modelling of RNNs, mostly motivated by adressing the problems of…

We consider a random two-phase process which we call a reset-return one. The particle starts its motion at the origin. The first, displacement, phase corresponds to a stochastic motion of a particle and is finished at a resetting event. The…

We derive precursors of extreme dissipation events in a turbulent channel flow. Using a recently developed method that combines dynamics and statistics for the underlying attractor, we extract a characteristic state that precedes…

In this paper we address the problem of optimal dividend payout strategies from a surplus process governed by Brownian motion with drift under a drawdown constraint, i.e. the dividend rate can never decrease below a given fraction $a$ of…

We study a classical Bayesian statistics problem of sequentially testing the sign of the drift of an arithmetic Brownian motion with the $0$-$1$ loss function and a constant cost of observation per unit of time for general prior…

We address the theory of records for integrated random walks with finite variance. The long-time continuum limit of these walks is a non-Markov process known as the random acceleration process or the integral of Brownian motion. In this…

A shift-periodic map is a one-dimensional map from the real line to itself which is periodic up to a linear translation and allowed to have singularities. It is shown that iterative sequences $x_{n+1}=F(x_n)$ generated by such maps display…

In this paper we consider a (reflected) Brownian motion with broken drift hitting a random boundary. Some dedicated calculations allow us to obtain the formula on the joint Laplace transform of the hitting time and hitting position. These…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…