Related papers: Outbreak statistics and scaling laws for externall…
The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…
The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the…
We study the spread of stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemics in two types of structured populations, both consisting of schools and households. In each of the types, every individual is part of one school…
We extend a recent study of susceptible-infected-removed epidemic processes with long range infection (referred to as I in the following) from 1-dimensional lattices to lattices in two dimensions. As in I we use hashing to simulate very…
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
With the premise that social interactions are described by power-law distributions, we study a SIR stochastic dynamic on a static scale-free random network generated via configuration model. We verify our model with respect to deterministic…
How to prevent the spread of human diseases is a great challenge for the scientific community and so far there are many studies in which immunization strategies have been developed. However, these kind of strategies usually do not consider…
In most models of the spread of disease over contact networks it is assumed that the probabilities per unit time of disease transmission and recovery from disease are constant, implying exponential distributions of the time intervals for…
Deterministic rate equations are widely used in the study of stochastic, interacting particles systems. This approach assumes that the inherent noise, associated with the discreteness of the elementary constituents, may be neglected when…
The quasi-deterministic limit of the generic extinction transition is considered within the framework of standard epidemiological models. The susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model is known to exhibit a transition from extinction to…
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…
Emergence of new diseases and elimination of existing diseases is a key public health issue. In mathematical models of epidemics, such phenomena involve the process of infections and recoveries passing through a critical threshold where the…
We numerically study the dynamics of the SIR disease model on small-world networks by using a large-deviation approach. This allows us to obtain the probability density function of the total fraction of infected nodes and of the maximum…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
Compartmental transmission models have become an invaluable tool to study the dynamics of infectious diseases. The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is known to have an exact semi-analytical solution. In the current study, the…
We consider evoSIR, a variant of the SIR model, on Erd\H os-Renyi random graphs in which susceptibles with an infected neighbor break that connection at rate $\rho$ and rewire to a randomly chosen individual. We compute the critical…
Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…
We consider an epidemic model of SIR type set on a homogeneous tree and investigate the spreading properties of the epidemic as a function of the degree of the tree, the intrinsic basic reproduction number and the strength of the…
We introduce an extension to Kermack and McKendrick's classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology, whose underlying mechanism of infection consists of individuals attending randomly generated social gatherings. This…
Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes $(Z(t))$ on $\mathbb{Z}^p$ form a usual set-up for modeling $SIR$-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on $(Z(t))$ is not easy to be achieved.…