Related papers: Outbreak statistics and scaling laws for externall…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
The behavior at criticality of spatial SIR (susceptible/infected/recovered) epidemic models in dimensions two and three is investigated. In these models, finite populations of size N are situated at the vertices of the integer lattice, and…
We study the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent forcing using analytic techniques which allow us to disentangle the interaction of stochasticity and external forcing. The model is formulated as a…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
We consider a spatial SIR epidemic model where the infectivity of infected individuals depends upon their age of infection, and infections are non local. The domain is an unbounded subset of $\R^d$,and the individuals do not move. We extend…
We consider an individual-based SIR stochastic epidemic model in continuous space. The evolution of the epidemic involves the rates of infection and cure of individuals. We assume that individuals move randomly on the two-dimensional torus…
The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China is characterized by a distinctive algebraic, sub-exponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting an initial exponential growth expected for an…
In the standard SIR model, infected vertices infect their neighbors at rate $\lambda$ independently across each edge. They also recover at rate $\gamma$. In this work we consider the SIR-$\omega$ model where the graph structure itself…
In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…
Epidemics have shaped human history, often with devastating consequences, motivating the development of mathematical models to understand and control their dynamics. Among the many aspects of epidemic behavior, the conditions that lead to…
Super-spreading events for infectious diseases occur when some infected individuals infect more than the average number of secondary cases. Several super-spreading individuals have been identified for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…
In the absence of other tools, monitoring the effects of protective measures, including social distancing and forecasting the outcome of outbreaks is of immense interest. Real-time data is noisy and very often hampered by systematic errors…
We present a finite-size scaling theory of a contact process with permanent immunity on uncorrelated scale-free networks. We model an epidemic outbreak by an analog of the susceptible-infected-removed model where an infected individual…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
We study the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly over all graphs with certain critical, heavy-tailed degree distributions. For this model, each vertex infects all its susceptible neighbors and…
We study in this paper a compartmental SIR model for a population distributed in a bounded domain D of $\mathbb{R}^d$, d= 1, 2, or 3. We describe a spatial model for the spread of a disease on a grid of D. We prove two laws of large…
In this paper, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on…
We evaluate analytically and numerically the size of the frozen core and various scaling laws for critical Boolean networks that have a power-law in- and/or out-degree distribution. To this purpose, we generalize an efficient method that…
We study a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with multiple seeds on a regular random graph. Many researchers have studied the epidemic threshold of epidemic models above which a global outbreak can occur, starting from an…