Related papers: Countable Partially Exchangeable Mixtures
In this paper, we study consistent and partially exchangeable sequences of Markov chains on a finite state space. We provide a characterisation of the admissible transition rates via a decomposition into individual and coordinated motion of…
Predictive constructions are a powerful way of characterizing the probability law of stochastic processes with certain forms of invariance, such as exchangeability or Markov exchangeability. When de Finetti-like representation theorems are…
In [Fortini et al., Stoch. Proc. Appl. 100 (2002), 147--165] it is demonstrated that a recurrent Markov exchangeable process in the sense of Diaconis and Freedman is essentially a partially exchangeable process in the sense of de Finetti.…
Motivated by recent interests in predictive inference under distribution shift, we study the problem of approximating finite weighted exchangeable sequences by a mixture of finite sequences with independent terms. Various bounds are derived…
We introduce a general framework for de Finetti reduction results, applicable to various notions of partially exchangeable probability distributions. Explicit statements are derived for the cases of exchangeability, Markov exchangeability,…
We present a novel proof of de Finetti's Theorem characterizing permutation-invariant probability measures of infinite sequences of variables, so-called exchangeable measures. The proof is phrased in the language of Markov categories, which…
We extend de Finetti's [Ann. Inst. H. Poincar\'{e} 7 (1937) 1--68] notion of exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions rather than…
Mixtures of product distributions are a powerful device for learning about heterogeneity within data populations. In this class of latent structure models, de Finetti's mixing measure plays the central role for describing the uncertainty…
Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the…
We extend de Finetti's (1937) notion of exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions rather than (linear) previsions. We prove…
We define and study a family of Markov processes with state space the compact set of all partitions of N that we call exchangeable fragmentation-coalescence processes. They can be viewed as a combination of exchangeable fragmentation as…
For a class of random partitions of an infinite set a de Finetti-type representation is derived, and in one special case a central limit theorem for the number of blocks is shown.
We prove a computable version of de Finetti's theorem on exchangeable sequences of real random variables. As a consequence, exchangeable stochastic processes expressed in probabilistic functional programming languages can be automatically…
Sets of desirable gambles constitute a quite general type of uncertainty model with an interesting geometrical interpretation. We give a general discussion of such models and their rationality criteria. We study exchangeability assessments…
We investigate how to model exchangeability with choice functions. Exchangeability is a structural assessment on a sequence of uncertain variables. We show how such assessments are a special indifference assessment, and how that leads to a…
We give a set of equivalent conditions for a potential on a Countable Markov Shift to have strong positive recurrence, which is also equivalent to having exponential decay of correlations. A key ingredient of our proofs is quantifying how…
A sequence of random variables is called exchangeable if the joint distribution of the sequence is unchanged by any permutation of the indices. De Finetti's theorem characterizes all $\{0,1\}$-valued exchangeable sequences as a "mixture" of…
De Finetti's theorem, also called the de Finetti-Hewitt-Savage theorem, is a foundational result in probability and statistics. Roughly, it says that an infinite sequence of exchangeable random variables can always be written as a mixture…
Finite mixtures are a flexible modeling tool for irregularly shaped densities and samples from heterogeneous populations. When modeling with mixtures using an exchangeable prior on the component features, the component labels are arbitrary…
We study a class of strongly irreducible, multidimensional, topological Markov shifts, comparing two notions of "symmetric measure": exchangeability and the Gibbs (or conformal) property. We show that equilibrium measures for such shifts…