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In this paper we present elementary computations for some Markov modulated counting processes, also called counting processes with regime switching. Regime switching has become an increasingly popular concept in many branches of science. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-27 Michel Mandjes , Peter Spreij

A combinatorial characterization of measurable filters on a countable set is found. We apply it to the problem of measurability of the intersection of nonmeasurable filters.

Logic · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Tomek Bartoszynski

In this paper we study various properties of finite stochastic systems or hidden Markov chains as they are alternatively called. We discuss their construction following different approaches and we also derive recursive filtering formulas…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-15 Peter Spreij

Trait allocations are a class of combinatorial structures in which data may belong to multiple groups and may have different levels of belonging in each group. Often the data are also exchangeable, i.e., their joint distribution is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-28 Trevor Campbell , Diana Cai , Tamara Broderick

Probabilistic models based on continuous latent spaces, such as variational autoencoders, can be understood as uncountable mixture models where components depend continuously on the latent code. They have proven to be expressive tools for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Gennaro Gala , Erik Quaeghebeur , Cassio de Campos , Robert Peharz

Measure-valued P\'{o}lya sequences (MVPS) are processes whose dynamics are governed by generalized P\'{o}lya urn schemes with infinitely many colors. Assuming a general reinforcement rule, exchangeable MVPSs can be viewed as extensions of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Yoana R. Chorbadzhiyska , Hristo Sariev , Mladen Savov

Any exchangeable Markov processes on $[k]^{\mathbb{N}}$ with cadlag sample paths projects to a Markov process on the simplex whose sample paths are cadlag and of locally bounded variation. Furthermore, any such process has a de Finetti-type…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-11-22 Harry Crane , Steven P. Lalley

We study a class of stochastic models of mass transport on discrete vertex set $V$. For these models, a one-parameter family of homogeneous product measures $\otimes_{i\in V} \nu_\theta$ is reversible. We prove that the set of mixtures of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Cristian Giardinà , Frank Redig , Berend van Tol

Let A be a standard Borel space, and consider the space A^{\bbN^{(k)}} of A-valued arrays indexed by all size-k subsets of \bbN. This paper concerns random measures on such a space whose laws are invariant under the natural action of…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-09 Tim Austin

We study conditional independence relationships for random networks and their interplay with exchangeability. We show that, for finitely exchangeable network models, the empirical subgraph densities are maximum likelihood estimates of their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-22 Steffen Lauritzen , Alessandro Rinaldo , Kayvan Sadeghi

We prove that moderate deviations for empirical measures for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains hold under the assumption of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains in Ces\`aro…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Mingzhou Xu , Kun Cheng

We provide a Minkowski sum decomposition of marked chain-order polytopes into building blocks associated to elementary markings and thus give an explicit minimal set of generators of an associated semi-group algebra. We proceed by…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2020-01-28 Xin Fang , Ghislain Fourier , Christoph Pegel

Exchangeability is a central notion in statistics and probability theory. The assumption that an infinite sequence of data points is exchangeable is at the core of Bayesian statistics. However, finite exchangeability as a statistical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-04-24 Mathias Niepert , Guy Van den Broeck

We present a novel family of deep neural architectures, named partially exchangeable networks (PENs) that leverage probabilistic symmetries. By design, PENs are invariant to block-switch transformations, which characterize the partial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-25 Samuel Wiqvist , Pierre-Alexandre Mattei , Umberto Picchini , Jes Frellsen

We explore the concept of a consistent exchangeable survival process - a joint distribution of survival times in which the risk set evolves as a continuous-time Markov process with homogeneous transition rates. We show a correspondence with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-10 Walter Dempsey , Peter McCullagh

Modeling dependencies among features is fundamental for many machine learning tasks. Although there are often multiple related instances that may be leveraged to inform conditional dependencies, typical approaches only model conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Yang Li , Junier B. Oliva

We establish an abstract, effective, exponential large deviations type estimate for Markov systems satisfying a weaker form of mixing. We employ this result to derive such estimates, as well as a central limit theorem, for the skew product…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-07-17 Ao Cai , Pedro Duarte , Silvius Klein

We consider exchangeable Markov multi-state survival processes -- temporal processes taking values over a state-space$\mathcal{S}$ with at least one absorbing failure state $\flat \in \mathcal{S}$ that satisfy natural invariance properties…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 Walter Dempsey

The extended de Finetti theorem characterizes exchangeable infinite random sequences as conditionally i.i.d. and shows that the apparently weaker distributional symmetry of spreadability is equivalent to exchangeability. Our main result is…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2008-06-24 Claus Köstler

About two dozens of exactly solvable Markov chains on one-dimensional finite and semi-infinite integer lattices are constructed in terms of convolutions of orthogonality measures of the Krawtchouk, Hahn, Meixner, Charlier, $q$-Hahn,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-17 Satoru Odake , Ryu Sasaki