Related papers: Effective Martingales with Restricted Wagers
Conformal predictors provide set or functional predictions that are valid under the assumption of randomness, i.e., under the assumption of independent and identically distributed data. The question asked in this paper is whether there are…
We introduce an efficient computational framework for solving a class of multi-marginal martingale optimal transport problems, which includes many robust pricing problems of large financial interest. Such problems are typically…
We study martingale inequalities from an analytic point of view and show that a general martingale inequality can be reduced to a pair of deterministic inequalities in a small number of variables. More precisely, the optimal bound in the…
Wagering mechanisms are one-shot betting mechanisms that elicit agents' predictions of an event. For deterministic wagering mechanisms, an existing impossibility result has shown incompatibility of some desirable theoretical properties. In…
Real-life agents seldom have unlimited reasoning power. In this paper, we propose and study a new formal notion of computationally bounded strategic ability in multi-agent systems. The notion characterizes the ability of a set of agents to…
We use machine learning to provide a tractable measure of the amount of predictable variation in the data that a theory captures, which we call its "completeness." We apply this measure to three problems: assigning certain equivalents to…
By the classical Martingale Representation Theorem, replication of random vectors can be achieved via stochastic integrals or solutions of stochastic differential equations. We introduce a new approach to replication of random vectors via…
We introduce a novel framework to account for sensitivity to rewards uncertainty in sequential decision-making problems. While risk-sensitive formulations for Markov decision processes studied so far focus on the distribution of the…
The principle that rational agents should maximize expected utility or choiceworthiness is intuitively plausible in many ordinary cases of decision-making under uncertainty. But it is less plausible in cases of extreme, low-probability risk…
We consider a generalization of the classical 100 Prisoner problem and its variant, involving empty boxes, whereby winning probabilities for a team depend on the number of attempts, as well as on the number of winners. We call this the…
From the perspective of expectations of randomly stopped sums, Wald's equation and the Optional Sampling Theorem identify situations in which the stopping time can be decoupled from the stopping place, acting as if the two were independent.…
Stochastic Network Calculus is a probabilistic method to compute performance bounds in networks, such as end-to-end delays. It relies on the analysis of stochastic processes using formalism of (Deterministic) Network Calculus. However,…
We generalise the randomness test definitions in the literature for both the Martin-L\"of and Schnorr randomness of a series of binary outcomes, in order to allow for interval-valued rather than merely precise forecasts for these outcomes,…
Within a contest there is some probability M_i(t) that contestant i will be the winner, given information available at time t, and M_i(t) must be a martingale in t. Assume continuous paths, to capture the idea that relevant information is…
We present a practical algorithm to compute models of rational functions with minimal resultant under conjugation by fractional linear transformations. We also report on a search for rational functions of degrees 2 and 3 with rational…
We derive recursions for the probability distribution of random sums by computer algebra. Unlike the well-known Panjer-type recursions, they are of finite order and thus allow for computation in linear time. This efficiency is bought by the…
For a fixed alphabet A, an infinite sequence X is said to be normal if every word w over A appears in X with the same frequency as any other word of the same length. A classical result relates normality to finite automata as follows: a…
This paper describes a construction of supermartingales realized as automatic functions. A capital of supermartingales is represented using automatic capital groups~(ACG). Properties of these automatic supermartingales are then studied.…
This is a comment on the article "Probabilistic Integration: A Role in Statistical Computation?" by F.-X. Briol, C. J. Oates, M. Girolami, M. A. Osborne and D. Sejdinovic to appear in Statistical Science. There is a role for statistical…
We construct a class of nonnegative martingale processes that oscillate indefinitely with high probability. For these processes, we state a uniform rate of the number of oscillations and show that this rate is asymptotically close to the…