Related papers: Effective Martingales with Restricted Wagers
Classical results of Bennett and Gill (1981) show that with probability 1, $P^A \neq NP^A$ relative to a random oracle $A$, and with probability 1, $P^\pi \neq NP^\pi \cap coNP^\pi$ relative to a random permutation $\pi$. Whether $P^A =…
In 1973 Fraenkel discovered interesting sequences which split the positive integers. These sequences became famous, because of a related unsolved conjecture. Here we construct combinatorial games, with `playable' rulesets, with these…
Strassen's classical martingale coupling theorem states that two real-valued random variables are ordered in the convex (resp.\ increasing convex) stochastic order if and only if they admit a martingale (resp.\ submartingale) coupling. By…
We study randomness beyond $\Pi^1_1$-randomness and its Martin-L\"of type variant, introduced in \cite{MR2340241} and further studied in \cite{Continuous-higher-randomness}. The class given by the infinite time Turing machines (\ITTM s),…
Classify simple games into sixteen "types" in terms of the four conventional axioms: monotonicity, properness, strongness, and nonweakness. Further classify them into sixty-four classes in terms of finiteness (existence of a finite carrier)…
The general use of subjective probabilities to model belief has been justified using many axiomatic schemes. For example, ?consistent betting behavior' arguments are well-known. To those not already convinced of the unique fitness and…
In this article we demonstrate how algorithmic probability theory is applied to situations that involve uncertainty. When people are unsure of their model of reality, then the outcome they observe will cause them to update their beliefs. We…
Given a random sample from a random variable $T$ which is bounded from above, $T\le\tau$ a.s., we define processes that are positive supermartingales if $E(T)\ge\mu$. Such processes are called test martingales. Tests of the supermartingale…
In algorithmic randomness, when one wants to define a randomness notion with respect to some non-computable measure $\lambda $, a choice needs to be made. One approach is to allow randomness tests to access the measure $\lambda $ as an…
Continuous first-order logic is used to apply model-theoretic analysis to analytic structures (e.g. Hilbert spaces, Banach spaces, probability spaces, etc.). Classical computable model theory is used to examine the algorithmic structure of…
The notion of Schnorr randomness refers to computable reals or computable functions. We propose a version of Schnorr randomness for subcomputable classes and characterize it in different ways: by Martin L\"of tests, martingales or measure…
Positive $T$-martingales were developed as a general framework that extends the positive measure-valued martingales and are meant to model intermittent turbulence. We extend their scope by allowing the martingale to take complex values. We…
Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in monetary wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes.…
In the context of Risk Neutral Pricing theory, we consider the classic problem of calibrating a martingale over $\mathbb{R}^n$ to a finite number of marginals thereof, or more practically, to prices of an arbitrary finite set of (joint)…
Programs with randomization constructs is an active research topic, especially after the recent introduction of martingale-based analysis methods for their termination and runtimes. Unlike most of the existing works that focus on proving…
Chances of a gambler are always lower than chances of a casino in the case of an ideal, mathematically perfect roulette, if the capital of the gambler is limited and the minimum and maximum allowed bets are limited by the casino. However, a…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential…
Consider a universal Turing machine that produces a partial or total function (or a binary stream), based on the answers to the binary queries that it makes during the computation. We study the probability that the machine will produce a…
We study cautious reasoning in finite sequential games played by agents with perfect recall. Our contribution lies in formulating a definition of prudent rationalizability (Heifetz et al. 2021, BEJTE) as an iterative reduction procedure of…
We derive computationally tractable methods to select a small subset of experiment settings from a large pool of given design points. The primary focus is on linear regression models, while the technique extends to generalized linear models…