Related papers: Effective Martingales with Restricted Wagers
Randomness in the sense of Martin-L\"of can be defined in terms of lower semicomputable supermartingales. We show that such a supermartingale cannot be replaced by a pair of supermartingales that bet only on the even bits (the first one)…
A fruitful way of obtaining meaningful, possibly concrete, algorithmically random numbers is to consider a potential behaviour of a Turing machine and its probability with respect to a measure (or semi-measure) on the input space of binary…
The gambler's ruin problem for correlated random walks (CRW), both with and without delays, is addressed using the Optional Stopping Theorem for martingales. We derive closed-form expressions for the ruin probabilities and the expected game…
We study Doob's martingale convergence theorem for computable continuous time martingales on Brownian motion, in the context of algorithmic randomness. A characterization of the class of sample points for which the theorem holds is given.…
The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of random variables, based on the approach to probability via valuations. The theory is based on a type of lower-measurable sets, which are controlled limits of open sets,…
Unlike Martin-L\"of randomness and Schnorr randomness, computable randomness has not been defined, except for a few ad hoc cases, outside of Cantor space. This paper offers such a definition (actually, several equivalent definitions), and…
In this paper we introduce the concept of conic martingales}. This class refers to stochastic processes having the martingale property, but that evolve within given (possibly time-dependent) boundaries. We first review some results about…
Though the ability of human beings to deal with probabilities has been put into question, the assessment of rarity is a crucial competence underlying much of human decision-making and is pervasive in spontaneous narrative behaviour. This…
This paper introduces a martingale that characterizes two properties of evolving forecast distributions. Ideal forecasts of a future event behave as martingales, sequen- tially updating the forecast to leverage the available information as…
The dominant theories of rational choice assume logical omniscience. That is, they assume that when facing a decision problem, an agent can perform all relevant computations and determine the truth value of all relevant logical/mathematical…
We investigate a possible definition of expectation and conditional expectation for random variables with values in a local field such as the $p$-adic numbers. We define the expectation by analogy with the observation that for real-valued…
We study the computational power of randomized computations on infinite objects, such as real numbers. In particular, we introduce the concept of a Las Vegas computable multi-valued function, which is a function that can be computed on a…
Classical probability theory is formulated using sets. In this paper, we extend classical probability theory with propositional computability logic. Unlike other formalisms, computability logic is built on the notion of events/games, which…
Many enumeration problems in combinatorics, including such fundamental questions as the number of regular graphs, can be expressed as high-dimensional complex integrals. Motivated by the need for a systematic study of the asymptotic…
A general theory of resource-bounded measurability and measure is developed. Starting from any feasible probability measure $\nu$ on the Cantor space $\C$ and any suitable complexity class $C \subseteq \C$, the theory identifies the subsets…
We introduce a finite version of free probability for rectangular matrices that amounts to operations on singular values of polynomials. We show that we can replicate the transforms from free probability, and that asymptotically there is…
In a Monte-Carlo test, the observed dataset is fixed, and several resampled or permuted versions of the dataset are generated in order to test a null hypothesis that the original dataset is exchangeable with the resampled/permuted ones.…
As inductive inference and machine learning methods in computer science see continued success, researchers are aiming to describe ever more complex probabilistic models and inference algorithms. It is natural to ask whether there is a…
In a prequential approach to algorithmic randomness, probabilities for the next outcome can be forecast `on the fly' without the need for fully specifying a probability measure on all possible sequences of outcomes, as is the case in the…
We initiate the effective metric structure theory of Keisler randomizations. We show that a classical countable structure $\mathcal{M}$ has a decidable presentation if and only if its Borel randomization $\mathcal{M}^{[0,1)}$ has a…