English

Indefinitely Oscillating Martingales

Machine Learning 2014-08-18 v1 Probability Statistics Theory Statistics Theory

Abstract

We construct a class of nonnegative martingale processes that oscillate indefinitely with high probability. For these processes, we state a uniform rate of the number of oscillations and show that this rate is asymptotically close to the theoretical upper bound. These bounds on probability and expectation of the number of upcrossings are compared to classical bounds from the martingale literature. We discuss two applications. First, our results imply that the limit of the minimum description length operator may not exist. Second, we give bounds on how often one can change one's belief in a given hypothesis when observing a stream of data.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1408.3169,
  title  = {Indefinitely Oscillating Martingales},
  author = {Jan Leike and Marcus Hutter},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1408.3169},
  year   = {2014}
}

Comments

ALT 2014, extended technical report

R2 v1 2026-06-22T05:28:27.893Z