Related papers: Predictability and suppression of extreme events i…

Here we define natural chaotic systems, like the earths weather and climate system, as chaotic systems which are open to the world so have constantly changing boundary conditions, and measurements of their states are subject to errors. In…

The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a…

Complexity is an important metric for appropriate characterization of different classes of irregular signals, observed in the laboratory or in nature. The literature is already rich in the description of such measures using a variety of…

We show that the probability distribution function that best fits the distribution of return times between two consecutive visits of a chaotic trajectory to finite size regions in phase space deviates from the exponential statistics by a…

The object of this paper is twofold. From one side we study the dichotomy, in terms of the Extremal Index of the possible Extreme Value Laws, when the rare events are centred around periodic or non periodic points. Then we build a general…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

Quantifying and predicting rare and extreme events persists as a crucial yet challenging task in understanding complex dynamical systems. Many practical challenges arise from the infrequency and severity of these events, including the…

Extreme events have low occurrence probabilities and display pronounced deviation from their average behaviour, such as earthquakes or power blackouts. Such extreme events occurring on the nodes of a complex network have been extensively…

We propose a theory based on dynamical systems to explain and predict the occurrence of extreme events, of which critical transitions form a subset. In fast-slow nonlinear systems, we identify a cascade of events preceding extreme events:…

The forecasting of high-dimensional, spatiotemporal nonlinear systems has made tremendous progress with the advent of model-free machine learning techniques. However, in real systems it is not always possible to have all the information…

We introduce a new class of models in which a large number of "agents" organize under the influence of an externally imposed coherent noise. The model shows reorganization events whose size distribution closely follows a power law over many…

Many complex systems exhibit extreme events far more often than expected for a normal distribution. This work examines how self-similar bursts of activity across several orders of magnitude can emerge from first principles in systems that…

Complex systems theory pays much attention to simple mechanisms producing nontrivial patterns, especially power laws. However, power laws with exponent close to one also result from complex mixtures of mechanisms that, in isolation, would…

We propose Echo State Networks (ESNs) to predict the statistics of extreme events in a turbulent flow. We train the ESNs on small datasets that lack information about the extreme events. We asses whether the networks are able to extrapolate…

Consequences of the basic and most evident consistency requirement-that measured events cannot happen and not happen at the same time-are shortly reviewed. Particular emphasis is given to event forecast and event control. As a consequence,…

Electricity networks are vulnerable to weather damage, with severe events often leading to faults and power outages. Timely forecasts of fault occurrences, ranging from nowcasts to several days ahead, can enhance preparedness, support…

Random walk on discrete lattice models is important to understand various types of transport processes. The extreme events, defined as exceedences of the flux of walkers above a prescribed threshold, have been studied recently in the…

Chaotic multiscale dynamical systems are common in many areas of science, one of the examples being the interaction of the low-frequency dynamics in the atmosphere with the fast turbulent weather dynamics. One of the key questions about…

Extreme events are ubiquitous in a wide range of dynamical systems, including turbulent fluid flows, nonlinear waves, large scale networks and biological systems. Here, we propose a variational framework for probing conditions that trigger…

We notice signatures of extreme events-like behavior in a laser based Ikeda map. The trajectory of the system occasionally travels a large distance away from the bounded chaotic region, which appears as intermittent spiking events in the…