Related papers: Predictability and suppression of extreme events i…

Abrupt and rapid high-amplitude changes in a dynamical system's states known as extreme event appear in many processes occurring in nature, such as drastic climate patterns, rogue waves, or avalanches. These events often entail catastrophic…

Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…

This article examines the subtle relationship between chaos and randomness, two concepts that, although they refer to seemingly unpredictable phenomenon, are based on fundamentally different principles. Chaos manifests in deterministic…

In this paper, we discuss the emergence of extreme events in a parametrically driven non-polynomial mechanical system with a velocity-dependent potential. We confirm the occurrence of extreme events from the probability distribution…

Since 1970, the R\"ossler system has remained as a considerably simpler and minimal dimensional chaos serving system. Unveiling the dynamics of a system of two coupled chaotic oscillators that leads to the emergence of extreme events in the…

We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…

Extreme events generated by complex systems have been intensively studied in many fields due to their great impact on scientific research and our daily lives. However, their prediction is still a challenge in spite of the tremendous…

We point out that the functional form describing the frequency of sizes of events in complex systems (e.g. earthquakes, forest fires, bursts of neuronal activity) can be obtained from maximal likelihood inference, which, remarkably, only…

The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…

Spatiotemporal complexity is induced in a two dimensional nonlinear disordered lattice through the modulational instability of an initially weakly perturbed excitation. In the course of evolution we observe the formation of transient as…

In this work, we report the emergence of extreme events in a damped and driven velocity-dependent mechanical system. We observe that the extreme events emerge at multiple points. We further notice that the extreme events occur symmetrically…

We provide an analytic, microscopic analysis of extreme events in an adaptive population comprising competing agents (e.g. species, cells, traders, data-packets). Such large changes tend to dictate the long-term dynamical behaviour of many…

We study deterministic systems, composed of excitable units of FitzHugh-Nagumo type, that are capable of self-generating and self-terminating strong deviations from their regular dynamics without the influence of noise or parameter change.…

Complex systems performing spiking dynamics are widespread in Nature. They cover from earthquakes, to neurons, variable stars, social networks, or stock markets. Understanding and characterizing their dynamics is relevant in order to detect…

Extreme events are emergent phenomena in multi-particle transport processes on complex networks. In practice, such events could range from power blackouts to call drops in cellular networks to traffic congestion on roads. All the earlier…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

Machine learning models play a vital role in the prediction task in several fields of study. In this work, we utilize the ability of machine learning algorithms to predict the occurrence of extreme events in a nonlinear mechanical system.…

The wave properties of complex scattering systems that are large compared to the wavelength, and show chaos in the classical limit, are extremely sensitive to system details. A solution to the wave equation for a specific configuration can…

The role of topological heterogeneity in the origin of extreme events in a network is investigated here. The dynamics of the oscillators associated with the nodes are assumed to be identical and influenced by mean-field repulsive…

We propose two potentially viable non-feedback methods, namely (i) constant bias and (ii) weak second periodic forcing as tools to mitigate extreme events. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these two tools in suppressing extreme events in…