Related papers: Predictability and suppression of extreme events i…

The size distribution of planned and forced outages and following restoration times in power systems have been studied for almost two decades and has drawn great interest as they display heavy tails. Understanding of this phenomenon has…

The statistics of natural catastrophes contains very counter-intuitive results. Using earthquakes as a working example, we show that the energy radiated by such events follows a power-law or Pareto distribution. This means, in theory, that…

Time series models often deal with extreme events and anomalies, both prevalent in real-world datasets. Such models often need to provide careful probabilistic forecasting, which is vital in risk management for extreme events such as…

Extreme-event predictability in turbulence is strongly state dependent, yet event-by-event predictability horizons are difficult to quantify without access to governing equations or costly perturbation ensembles. Here we train an…

Rare events play a crucial role in understanding complex systems. Characterizing and analyzing them in scale-invariant situations is challenging due to strong correlations. In this work, we focus on characterizing the tails of probability…

Due to the deterministic nature of chaotic systems, fluctuations in their trajectories arise solely from the choice of initial conditions. Some of these dynamical fluctuations may lead to extremely unlikely scenarios. Understanding the…

The character of the time-asymptotic evolution of physical systems can have complex, singular behavior with variation of a system parameter, particularly when chaos is involved. A perturbation of the parameter by a small amount $\epsilon$…

The collapse of man-made and natural structures is a complex phenomenon that has been studied for centuries. We propose a new approach to understanding catastrophic instabilities, based on the idea that they do not occur at the critical…

In high-stakes systems such as healthcare, it is critical to understand the causal reasons behind unusual events, such as sudden changes in patient's health. Unveiling the causal reasons helps with quick diagnoses and precise treatment…

The scaling behavior of the maximal Lyapunov exponent in chaotic systems with time-delayed feedback is investigated. For large delay times it has been shown that the delay-dependence of the exponent allows a distinction between strong and…

We consider a class of chance-constrained programs in which profit needs to be maximized while enforcing that a given adverse event remains rare. Using techniques from large deviations and extreme value theory, we show how the optimal value…

Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…

We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current…

Extreme events frequently occur in real-world time series and often carry significant practical implications. In domains such as climate and healthcare, these events, such as floods, heatwaves, or acute medical episodes, can lead to serious…

An extremely challenging problem of significant interest is to predict catastrophes in advance of their occurrences. We present a general approach to predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems under the assumption that the…

Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…

Chaotic systems arise naturally in Statistical Mechanics and in Fluid Dynamics. A paradigm for their modelization are smooth hyperbolic systems. Are there consequences that can be drawn simply by assuming that a system is hyperbolic? here…

Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…

Intermittent large amplitude events are seen in the temporal evolution of a state variable of many dynamical systems. Such intermittent large events suddenly start appearing in dynamical systems at a critical value of a system parameter and…

Waves traveling through random media exhibit random focusing that leads to extremely high wave intensities even in the absence of nonlinearities. Although such extreme events are present in a wide variety of physical systems and the…