Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population
Disordered Systems and Neural Networks
2009-11-07 v1 q-bio
Abstract
The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.
Cite
@article{arxiv.cond-mat/0105258,
title = {Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population},
author = {D. Lamper and S. Howison and N. F. Johnson},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:cond-mat/0105258},
year = {2009}
}
Comments
10 pages, 3 figures