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Related papers: Survival probabilities of autoregressive processes

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We introduce a novel multivariate random process producing Bernoulli outputs per dimension, that can possibly formalize binary interactions in various graphical structures and can be used to model opinion dynamics, epidemics, financial and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-20 Dimitrios Katselis , Carolyn L. Beck , R. Srikant

In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the point process of exceedances in a spatio-temporal setting whose points are given by the rescaled occurrence times, the sites and the rescaled values of exceedances. Here, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Carolin Forster , Marco Oesting

In this paper we analyze so-called Parisian ruin probability that happens when surplus process stays below zero longer than fixed amount of time $\zeta>0$. We focus on general spectrally negative L\'{e}vy insurance risk process. For this…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-04-21 Irmina Czarna , Zbigniew Palmowski

We consider a random walk among i.i.d. obstacles on the one dimensional integer lattice under the condition that the walk starts from the origin and reaches a remote location y. The obstacles are represented by a killing potential, which…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-12 Elena Kosygina

In recent years, model collapse has become a critical issue in language model training, making it essential to understand the underlying mechanisms driving this phenomenon. In this paper, we investigate recursive parametric model training…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-23 Shirong Xu , Hengzhi He , Guang Cheng

The autoregressive process of order $p$ (AR($p$)) is a central model in time series analysis. A Bayesian approach requires the user to define a prior distribution for the coefficients of the AR($p$) model. Although it is easy to write down…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-01 Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye , Håvard Rue

We study the long-time tails of the survival probability $P(t)$ of an $A$ particle diffusing in $d$-dimensional media in the presence of a concentration $\rho$ of traps $B$ that move sub-diffusively, such that the mean square displacement…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 S. B. Yuste , G. Oshanin , K. Lindenberg , O. Benichou , J. Klafter

The random coefficient integer-valued autoregressive process was introduced by Zheng, Basawa, and Datta. In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of this model (in particular, weak limits of extreme values and the growth rate of…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-17 Zheng Zhong , Alexander Roitershtein

We review some old and prove some new results on the survival probability of a random walk among a Poisson system of moving traps on Z^d, which can also be interpreted as the solution of a parabolic Anderson model with a random…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-04 Alexander Drewitz , Jürgen Gärtner , Alejandro F. Ramírez , Rongfeng Sun

Let $(Z_n)_{n\geqslant 0}$ be a branching process in a random environment defined by a Markov chain $(X_n)_{n\geqslant 0}$ with values in a finite state space $\mathbb X$ starting at $X_0=i \in\mathbb X$. We extend from the i.i.d.…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-02 Ion Grama , Ronan Lauvergnat , Emile Le Page

In [G. Garcia-Calderon, J. L. Mateos, and M. Moshinsky, Phys. Rev. Lett. 74, 337 (1995)], the time evolution of the quantum decay of a state initially located within an interaction region of finite range was investigated. In particular, it…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-10-30 R. M. Cavalcanti

For estimating the unknown parameters in an unstable autoregressive AR(p), the paper proposes sequential least squares estimates with a special stopping time defined by the trace of the observed Fisher information matrix. The limiting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-10-07 Leonid Galtchouk , Victor Konev

Branching processes in a random environment are natural generalisations of Galton-Watson processes. In this paper we analyse the asymptotic decay of the survival probability for a sequence of slightly supercritical branching processes in an…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-23 Florin Boenkost , Götz Kersting

The number of recurrent events before a terminating event is often of interest. For instance, death terminates an individual's process of rehospitalizations and the number of rehospitalizations is an important indicator of economic cost. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-30 Willem van den Boom , Maria De Iorio , Marta Tallarita

We review recent studies demonstrating a nonuniversal (continuously variable) survival exponent for history-dependent random walks, and analyze a new example, the hard movable partial reflector. These processes serve as a simplified models…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-24 Ronald Dickman , Francisco Fontenele Araujo , Daniel ben-Avraham

We consider continuous state branching processes that are perturbed by a Brownian motion. These processes are constructed as the unique strong solution of a stochastic differential equation. The long-term extinction and explosion behaviours…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-17 Sandra Palau , Juan Carlos Pardo

This paper introduces a new stochastic process with values in the set Z of integers with sign. The increments of process are Poisson differences and the dynamics has an autoregressive structure. We study the properties of the process and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-12 Giulia Carallo , Roberto Casarin , Christian P. Robert

We study an unbiased, discrete time random walk on the nonnegative integers, with the origin absorbing. The process has a history-dependent step length: the walker takes steps of length v while in a region which has been visited before, and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-08-27 Ronald Dickman , Francisco Fontenele Araujo, , Daniel ben-Avraham

Suppose a sequence of random variables {X_n} has negative drift when above a certain threshold and has increments bounded in L^p. When p>2 this implies that EX_n is bounded above by a constant independent of n and the particular sequence…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Robin Pemantle , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

For a random walk on the integer lattice $\mathbb{Z}$ that is attracted to a strictly stable process with index $\alpha\in (1, 2)$ we obtain the asymptotic form of the transition probability for the walk killed when it hits a finite set.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-24 Kohei Uchiyama