Related papers: Survival probabilities of autoregressive processes
We consider a renewal process which models a cumulative shock model that fails when the accumulation of shocks up-crosses a certain threshold. The ratio limit properties of the probabilities of non-failure after n cumulative shocks are…
The decay of a moving system is studied in case the system is initially prepared in a two-mass unstable quantum state. The survival probability $\mathcal{P}_p(t)$ is evaluated over short and long times in the reference frame where the…
We provide asymptotic bounds on the survival probability of a moving polymer in an environment of Poisson traps. Our model for the polymer is the vector-valued solution of a stochastic heat equation driven by additive spacetime white noise;…
In this short paper we derive a formula for the spatial persistence probability of the Airy_1 and the Airy_2 processes. We then determine numerically a persistence coefficient for the Airy_1 process and its dependence on the threshold.
Let $X$ be a symmetric, pure jump, unimodal Levy process in $\mathbb{R}$ with an infinite Levy measure. We prove that for any fixed $t > 0$ the survival probability $P^x(\tau_{(-a,a)} > t)$ is nondecreasing on $(-a,0]$, nonincreasing on…
Consider a rooted $N$-ary tree. To every vertex of this tree, we attach an i.i.d. continuous random variable. A vertex is called accessible if along its ancestral line, the attached random variables are increasing. We keep accessible…
Survivorship analysis allows to statistically analyze situations that can be modeled as waiting times to an event. These waiting times are characterized by the cumulative hazard rate, which can be estimated by the Nelson-Aalen estimator or…
This paper presents a model of asymmetric bifurcating autoregressive process with random coefficients. We couple this model with a Galton Watson tree to take into account possibly missing observations. We propose least-squares estimators…
For a L\'evy process $X$ on a finite time interval consider the probability that it exceeds some fixed threshold $x>0$ while staying below $x$ at the points of a regular grid. We establish exact asymptotic behavior of this probability as…
This paper is a continuation of the study on the stability speed for Markov processes. It extends the previous study of the ergodic convergence speed to the non-ergodic one, in which the processes are even allowed to be explosive or having…
This work is a commentary of the article \href{https://doi.org/10.18716/ojs/phai/2025.2801}{AI Survival Stories: a Taxonomic Analysis of AI Existential Risk} by Cappelen, Goldstein, and Hawthorne. It is not just a commentary though, but a…
The paper is devoted to the study of the asymptotic behaviour of Moran process in random environment, say random selection. In finite population, the Moran process may be degenerate in finite time, thus we will study its limiting process in…
We study the persistence probabilities of a moving average process of order one with uniform innovations. We identify a number of regions, characterized by the location of the uniform distribution and the coupling parameter of the process,…
We consider maximum likelihood estimation for both causal and noncausal autoregressive time series processes with non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable noise. A nondegenerate limiting distribution is given for maximum likelihood estimators of the…
We investigate the impact on survival of a modification of the evolution of a sub-stochastic Markov chain that involves random relocations at previously visited states. Our central result is that such preferential relocations increase the…
Let $\{X_i(t),t\ge0\}, 1\le i\le n$ be independent copies of a random process $\{X(t), t\ge0\}$. For a given positive constant $u$, define the set of $r$th conjunctions $C_r(u):=\{t\in[0,1]: X_{r:n}(t)>u\}$ with $ X_{r:n}$ the $r$th largest…
The aim of this paper is to study two models for a bacterial population subject to antibiotic treatments. It is known that some bacteria are sensitive to antibiotics. These bacteria are in a state called persistence and each bacterium can…
In spite of precautions to avoid the harmful effects of extreme events, we experience recurrently phenomena that overcome the preventive barriers. These barriers usually increase drastically right after the occurrence of such extreme…
This review paper presents the known results on the asymptotics of the survival probability and limit theorems conditioned on survival of critical and subcritical branching processes in IID random environments. The key assumptions of the…
We consider two-dimensional L\'evy processes reflected to stay in the positive quadrant. Our focus is on the non-standard regime when the mean of the free process is negative but the reflection vectors point away from the origin, so that…