Related papers: Survival probabilities of autoregressive processes

We establish exact formulae for the persistence probabilities of an AR(1) sequence with symmetric uniform innovations in terms of certain families of polynomials, most notably a family introduced by Mallows and Riordan as enumerators of…

For many stochastic processes, the probability $S(t)$ of not-having reached a target in unbounded space up to time $t$ follows a slow algebraic decay at long times, $S(t)\sim S_0/t^\theta$. This is typically the case of symmetric compact…

We consider the Airy$_1$ process, which is the limit process in KPZ growth models with flat and non-random initial conditions. We study the persistence probability, namely the probability that the process stays below a given threshold $c$…

Using the annealed approach we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the survival probability of a critical multitype branching process evolving in i.i.d. random environment. We show under rather general assumptions on the form of the…

We calculate the survival probability of a stationary target in one dimension surrounded by diffusive or subdiffusive traps of time-dependent density. The survival probability of a target in the presence of traps of constant density is…

Standard autoregressive language models perform only polynomial-time computation to compute the probability of the next symbol. While this is attractive, it means they cannot model distributions whose next-symbol probability is hard to…

If $X$ is a stable process of index $\alpha\in(0,2)$ whose L\'{e}vy measure has density $cx^{-\alpha-1}$ on $(0,\infty)$, and $S_1=\sup_{0<t\leq1}X_t$, it is known that $P(S_1>x)\backsim A\alpha ^{-1}x^{-\alpha}$ as $x\to\infty$ and…

Many researchers have investigated first hitting times as models for survival data. First hitting times arise naturally in many types of stochastic processes, ranging from Wiener processes to Markov chains. In a survival context, the state…

We analyze the dynamics of random walks in which the jumping probabilities are periodic {\it time-dependent} functions. In particular, we determine the survival probability of biased walkers who are drifted towards an absorbing boundary.…

We study Markov processes conditioned so that their local time must grow slower than a prescribed function. Building upon recent work on Brownian motion with constrained local time in [5] and [33], we study transience and recurrence for a…

The persistence of a stochastic variable is the probability that it does not cross a given level during a fixed time interval. Although persistence is a simple concept to understand, it is in general hard to calculate. Here we consider zero…

We consider a branching random walk in a random space-time environment of disasters where each particle is killed when meeting a disaster. This extends the model of the "random walk in a disastrous random environment" introduced by [15]. We…

The persistence exponent, which characterises the long-time decay of the survival probability of stochastic processes in the presence of an absorbing target, plays a key role in quantifying the dynamics of fluctuating systems. Determining…

A nearly unstable sequence of stationary spatial autoregressive processes is investigated, when the sum of the absolute values of the autoregressive coefficients tends to one. It is shown that after an appropriate norming the least squares…

We introduce the concept of `discrete-time persistence', which deals with zero-crossings of a continuous stochastic process, X(T), measured at discrete times, T = n \Delta T. For a Gaussian Markov process with relaxation rate \mu, we show…

In this paper, we study finite-sample properties of the least squares estimator in first order autoregressive processes. By leveraging a result from decoupling theory, we derive upper bounds on the probability that the estimate deviates by…

The paper considers a continuous-time birth-death process where the jump rate has an asymptotically polynomial dependence on the process position. We obtain a rough exponential asymptotics for the probability of excursions of a re-scaled…

A L\'evy process is said to creep through a curve if, at its first passage time across this curve, the process reaches it with positive probability. We first study this property for bivariate subordinators. Given the graph…

We prove that a large class of discrete-time insurance surplus processes converge weakly to a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, under a suitable re-normalization and when the time-step goes to 0. Motivated by ruin theory, we use this…

We study the asymptotics of the probabilities of extreme slowdown events for transient one-dimensional excited random walks. That is, if $\{X_n\}_{n\geq 0}$ is a transient one-dimensional excited random walk and $T_n = \min\{ k: \, X_k =…