Related papers: Survival probabilities of autoregressive processes
We consider a structural model where the survival/default state is observed together with a noisy version of the firm value process. This assumption makes the model more realistic than most of the existing alternatives, but triggers…
Let $N$ and $M$ be positive integers satisfying $1\le M\le N$, and let $0<p_0<p_1<1$. Define a process $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^\infty$ on $\mathbb{Z}$ as follows. At each step, the process jumps either one step to the right or one step to the left,…
The persistence properties of a set of random walkers obeying the A+B -> 0 reaction, with equal initial density of particles and homogeneous initial conditions, is studied using two definitions of persistence. The probability, P(t), that an…
In this paper we consider the problem of detecting a change in the parameters of an autoregressive process, where the moments of the innovation process do not necessarily exist. An empirical likelihood ratio test for the existence of a…
We study the gap probabilities of the single-time Tacnode process. Through steepest descent analysis of a suitable Riemann-Hilbert problem, we show that under appropriate scaling regimes the gap probability of the Tacnode process…
A new family of penalty functions, adaptive to likelihood, is introduced for model selection in general regression models. It arises naturally through assuming certain types of prior distribution on the regression parameters. To study…
In the analysis of survival data, it is usually assumed that any unit will experience the event of interest if it is observed for a sufficient long time. However, one can explicitly assume that an unknown proportion of the population under…
We prove for an arbitrary one-dimensional random walk with independent increments that the probability of crossing a level at a given time n has the order of square root of n. Moment or symmetry assumptions are not necessary. In removing…
We suggest how to construct joint confidence distributions for several parameters and apply these ideas to an autoregressive process of general order. The implied non informative prior for the parameters, i.e. the ratio between the…
We consider a branching stable process with positive jumps, i.e. a continuous-time branching process in which the particles evolve independently as stable L{\'e}vy processes with positive jumps. Assuming the branching mechanism is critical…
The higher dimensional autoregressive models would describe some of the econometric processes relatively generically if they incorporate the heterogeneity in dependence on times. This paper analyzes the stationarity of an autoregressive…
Estimating the parameters from $k$ independent Bin$(n,p)$ random variables, when both parameters $n$ and $p$ are unknown, is relevant to a variety of applications. It is particularly difficult if $n$ is large and $p$ is small. Over the past…
We consider records and sequences of records drawn from discrete time series of the form $X_{n}=Y_{n}+cn$, where the $Y_{n}$ are independent and identically distributed random variables and $c$ is a constant drift. For very small and very…
We introduce and investigate the escape problem for random walkers that may eventually die, decay, bleach, or lose activity during their diffusion towards an escape or reactive region on the boundary of a confining domain. In the case of a…
In a step reinforced random walk, at each integer time and with a fixed probability p $\in$ (0, 1), the walker repeats one of his previous steps chosen uniformly at random, and with complementary probability 1 -- p, the walker makes an…
The asymptotic survival probability of a spherical target in the presence of a single subdiffusive trap or surrounded by a sea of subdiffusive traps in a continuous Euclidean medium is calculated. In one and two dimensions the survival…
Given independent random variables $Y_1, \ldots, Y_n$ with $Y_i \in \{0,1\}$ we test the hypothesis whether the underlying success probabilities $p_i$ are constant or whether they are periodic with an unspecified period length of $r \ge 2$.…
We study exit times from a set for a family of multivariate autoregressive processes with normally distributed noise. By using the large deviation principle, and other methods, we show that the asymptotic behavior of the exit time depends…
The asymptotic behavior of a subcritical Branching Process in Random Environment (BPRE) starting with several particles depends on whether the BPRE is strongly subcritical (SS), intermediate subcritical (IS) or weakly subcritical (WS).…
We are interested in the recursive model $(Y_n, \, n\ge 0)$ studied by Collet, Eckmann, Glaser and Martin [9] and by Derrida and Retaux [12]. We prove that at criticality, the probability ${\bf P}(Y_n>0)$ behaves like $n^{-2 + o(1)}$ as $n$…