Related papers: Why price inflation in developed countries is syst…
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky argued for challenging inside views (informed by contextual specifics) with outside views (based on historical "base rates" for certain event types). A reasonable inside view of the prospects for the global…
We propose a complete reconciliation procedure, resulting in a 'one number forecast' of the GDP figure, coherent with both Income and Expenditure sides' forecasted series, and evaluate its performance on the Australian quarterly GDP series,…
The degree of convergence of the business cycles of the economies of the European Union is a key policy issue. In particular, a substantial degree of convergence is needed if the European Central Bank is to be capable of setting a monetary…
Labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and modeled. Modeling is based on our previous finding that the rate of labor force participation is a unique function of GDP per capita. Therefore, labor productivity is fully…
The twentieth century was a period of outstanding economic growth together with an unequal income distribution. This paper analyses the international distribution of growth rates and its dynamics during the twentieth century. We show that…
Since the beginning of this century the Colombian monetary authority has conducted monetary policy under a strategy based on setting targets for interest rate and inflation, while allowing the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar in domestic…
Most models that try to explain economic growth indicate exponential growth paths. In recent years, however, a lively discussion has emerged considering the validity of this notion. In the empirical literature dealing with drivers of…
The vacuum $R^2$ model is known to generate a quasi-de Sitter evolution for inflation, using solely the slow-roll assumptions. Using standard reconstruction techniques, we demonstrate that the $f(R)$ gravity which actually realizes the…
The primary objective of this paper was to investigate whether the growth in the major US asset indices could be a function of the US broad money supply and/or US GDP, over the time period 2001 to 2019, using an information entropy…
The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (`fixed') predictand, so that the difficulty of the forecasting problem decreases over time. Fixed-event point forecasts are…
Empirical evidence suggests that there is little to no correlation between the rate of inflation and the size of price change. Economists have hitherto taken this to mean that monetary shocks do not generate much deviation in relative…
One of the first steps to understand and forecast economic downturns is identifying their frequency distribution, but it remains uncertain. This problem is common in phenomena displaying power-law-like distributions. Power laws play a…
High future discounting rates favor inaction on present expending while lower rates advise for a more immediate political action. A possible approach to this key issue in global economy is to take historical time series for nominal interest…
Last year we argued that if slow-roll inflation followed the decay of a false vacuum in a large landscape, the steepening of the scalar potential between the inflationary plateau and the barrier generically leads to a potentially observable…
GDP of China is about 11 trillion dollars and GDP of the United States is about 18 trillion dollars. Suppose that we know for the coming years, economy of the US will experience a real growth rate equal to \%3 and economy of China will…
Growth in the global human population this century will have momentous consequences for societies and the environment. Population growth has come with higher aggregate human welfare, but also climate change and biodiversity loss. Based on…
This paper aims to examine the use of sparse methods to forecast the real, in the chain-linked volume sense, expenditure components of the US and EU GDP in the short-run sooner than the national institutions of statistics officially release…
This article is a supplement to my main contribution to the Routledge Handbook of Complexity Economics (2023). On the basis of three recent papers, it presents an unconventional perspective on economic inequality from a statistical physics…
The effect of the length of inflation on the power spectra of scalar and tensor perturbations is estimated using the power-law inflation model with a scale factor of a(t) = t^q. Considering various pre-inflation models with…
Picking out DBI scalar field as inflation, the slow-rolling inflationary scenario is studied by attributing an exponential time function to scale factor; known as intermediate inflation. The perturbation parameters of the model are…