Related papers: Why price inflation in developed countries is syst…
This paper studies how a large increase in the price level is transmitted to the real economy through firm balance sheets. Using newly digitized macro- and micro-level data from the German inflation of 1919-1923, we show that inflation led…
We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that…
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, p(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+ A2, where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients, was found for developed economies. The…
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE)…
We present a novel analysis extending the recent work of Mizuno et al. [2002] on the hyperinflations of Germany (1920/1/1-1923/11/1), Hungary (1945/4/30-1946/7/15), Brazil (1969-1994), Israel (1969-1985), Nicaragua (1969-1991), Peru…
Inflation is part of the Standard Model of the Universe supported by CMB and large scale structure LSS datasets. This review presents new developments of inflation in three main chapters. (I): The effective theory of inflation a la…
We analyze and develop a quantitative model describing the evolution of personal income distribution, PID, for males and females in the U.S. between 1930 and 2014. The overall microeconomic model, which we introduced ten years ago,…
Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR,…
Even at the beginning of 2008, the economic recession of 2008/09 was not being predicted. The failure to predict recessions is a persistent theme in economic forecasting. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) provides data on…
A society or country with income equally distributed among its people is truly a fiction! The phenomena of socioeconomic inequalities have been plaguing mankind from times immemorial. We are interested in gaining an insight about the…
This article is an extension of the work of one of us (Coopersmith, 2011) in deriving the relationship between certain interest rates and the inflation rate of a two component economic system. We use the well-known Fisher relation between…
Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized…
In the last 150 years, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million. This has caused an increase in the average global temperatures by nearly 0.7 degree centigrade due to the…
A robust thermodynamic relation between inflation corrected monetary valuation and energy emerges from existing work. This is based on the energy used, the aggregate efficiency of all production processes ($\Lambda(t)$) in terms of Joules…
The so-called great divergence in the income per capita is described in the Unified Growth Theory as the mind-boggling and unresolved mystery about the growth process. This mystery has now been solved: the great divergence never happened.…
Recent strides in economic complexity have shown that the future economic development of nations can be predicted with a single "economic fitness" variable, which captures countries' competitiveness in international trade. The predictions…
This paper investigates Minsky's cycles by extending the paper of stockhammer et al. (2019) with a nonlinear model to capture possible local real-financial endogenous cycles. We trace nonlinear regime changes and check the presence of…
For western economies a long-forgotten phenomenon is on the horizon: rising inflation rates. We propose a novel approach christened D2ML to identify drivers of national inflation. D2ML combines machine learning for model selection with time…
Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growth Theory is found to be contradicted by these data in the same way as it is contradicted by the economic growth in Africa, Asia, former USSR,…
The evolution of global income distribution from 1988 to 2018 is analyzed using purchasing power parity exchange rates and well-established statistical distributions. This research proposes the use of two separate distributions to more…