Related papers: Why price inflation in developed countries is syst…
In this paper, we assess whether using non-linear dimension reduction techniques pays off for forecasting inflation in real-time. Several recent methods from the machine learning literature are adopted to map a large dimensional dataset…
Although empirical literature regarding the Phillips curve is sizeable enough, there is still no wide consensus on its validity and stability. The literature shows that the Phillips relationship is fragile and varies across countries and…
We apply the concept of Rayleigh-Jeans thermalization of classical fields for a description of the world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) distribution over countries. The thermalization appears due to a variety of interactions between countries…
Inflation in a five-dimensional brane world model with two boundary branes is studied. We make use of the moduli space approximation whereby the low energy theory reduces to a four-dimensional biscalar-tensor gravity plus a minimally…
Which level of inflation should Central Banks be targeting? We investigate this issue in the context of a simplified Agent Based Model of the economy. Depending on the value of the parameters that describe the behaviour of agents (in…
We propose a new model for the joint evolution of the European inflation rate, the European Central Bank official interest rate and the short-term interest rate, in a stochastic, continuous time setting. We derive the valuation equation for…
This paper introduces a new event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment and provides evidence that it shapes economic growth. The measure is built from 373,020 geopolitical events across 193 countries over 1960--2024, compiled…
Research and development (R&D) of countries play a major role in a long-term development of the economy. We measure the R&D efficiency of all 28 member countries of the European Union in the years 2008--2014. Super-efficient data…
Macroeconomic theories of growth and wealth distribution have an outsized influence on national and international social and economic policies. Yet, due to a relative lack of reliable, system wide data, many such theories remain, at best,…
A practical statistical analysis on the regional populations and GDPs of China is conducted. The result shows that the distribution of the populations and that of the GDPs obeys the shifted power law, respectively. To understand these…
This study examined the relationship between trade facilitation and economic growth among the middle-income countries from 2010 to 2020 using 94 countries made up of 48 lower-middle-income countries and 46 upper-middle-income countries. The…
An empirical relation indicates that an increase of living standard decreases the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), but this trend was broken in highly developed countries in 2005. The reversal of the TFR was associated with the continuous…
We study a generalized superconformal model that gives rise to a subcritical regime of $D$-term hybrid inflation. Exhibiting the model both in a Jordan frame and in the Einstein frame, the effective potential of the subcritical regime is…
This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country GDP and industrial production (IP) growth rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries…
Economy correlations between the 19 richest countries are investigated through their Gross Domestic Product increments. A distance is defined between increment correlation matrix elements and their evolution studied as a function of time…
The economy in the modern world is greatly influenced by artificial intelligence (AI). This paper aims to determine the impact of AI quantitative relationships on the country's economic parameters, including GDP per Capita. Historical data…
With present and future observations becoming of higher and higher quality, it is timely and necessary to investigate the most significant theoretical uncertainties in the predictions of inflation. We show that our ignorance of the entire…
Recent results from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe have been called a corroboration, or even a confirmation, of inflation. Yet, the results include features that require, at least, a significant distortion of what is usually meant…
An information entropy statistical methodology was used to evaluate the growth of the UK economy over the period 2000 to 2019, with an emphasis on the impact of labour productivity on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the average…
This paper develops an algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time. The algorithm constructs hundreds of millions of recession classifiers by combining unemployment and vacancy data. Classifiers are then selected to avoid both false…