Related papers: A coupled hidden Markov model for disease interact…
Over the past few decades, the Hawkes process has become a popular framework for modeling temporal events thanks to its flexibility to capture different dependency structures. The objective of this work is to model call sequences emitted by…
Most of zoonoses are multi-host parasites with multiple transmission routes that are usually investigated separately despite their potential interplay. As a unifying framework for modelling parasite spread through different paths of…
We developed a mathematical model to investigate the role of indirect transmission in the spread of infectious diseases, using the illustrative example of sarcoptic mange as a case study. This disease can be transmitted through direct…
We consider a non-attractive three state contact process on $\mathbb Z$ and prove that there exists a regime of survival as well as a regime of extinction. In more detail, the process can be regarded as an infection process in a dynamic…
We introduce a restricted latent class exploratory model for longitudinal data with ordinal attributes and respondent-specific covariates. Responses follow a time inhomogeneous hidden Markov model where the probability of a respondent's…
When is keeping a memory of observations worthwhile? We use hidden Markov models to look at phase transitions that emerge when comparing state estimates in systems with discrete states and noisy observations. We infer the underlying state…
Multivariate data sources with components of different information value seem to appear frequently in practice. Models in which the components change their homogeneity at different times are of significant importance. The fact whether any…
To examine the co-evolution of quantitative traits in hosts and parasites, we present and study a co-evolutionary model of a social parasite-host system that incorporates (1) ecological dynamics that feed back into their co-evolutionary…
In ecological systems heterogeneous interactions between pathogens take place simultaneously. This occurs, for instance, when two pathogens cooperate, while at the same time multiple strains of these pathogens co-circulate and compete.…
We propose a causal hidden Markov model to achieve robust prediction of irreversible disease at an early stage, which is safety-critical and vital for medical treatment in early stages. Specifically, we introduce the hidden variables which…
Time series of conformational dynamics in proteins are usually evaluated with hidden Markov models (HMMs). This approach works well if the number of states and their connectivity is known. However, for the multi-domain protein Hsp90, a…
Multi-state models are commonly used for intermittent observations of a state over time, but these are generally based on the Markov assumption, that transition rates are independent of the time spent in current and previous states. In a…
We study an abstract model for the co-evolution between mutating viruses and the adaptive immune system. In sequence space, these two populations are localized around transiently dominant strains. Delocalization or error thresholds exhibit…
In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary…
A discrete time stochastic model for a multiagent system given in terms of a large collection of interacting Markov chains is studied. The evolution of the interacting particles is described through a time inhomogeneous transition…
In the context of multilevel longitudinal data, where sample units are collected in clusters, an important aspect that should be accounted for is the unobserved heterogeneity between sample units and between clusters. For this aim we…
We derive a Poisson random field model for population site polymorphisms differences within and between two species that share a relatively recent common ancestor. The model can be either equilibrium or time inhomogeneous. We first consider…
Critically ill patients in regular wards are vulnerable to unanticipated adverse events which require prompt transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU). To allow for accurate prognosis of deteriorating patients, we develop a novel…
The possibility of coexistence of two competing populations is a classical question which dates back to the earliest `predator-prey' models. In this paper we study this question in the context of a model for the spread of a virus infection…
The interaction among spreading processes on a complex network is a nontrivial phenomenon of great importance. It has recently been realized that cooperative effects among infective diseases can give rise to qualitative changes in the…