Related papers: A coupled hidden Markov model for disease interact…
We develop Graph-Coupled Hidden Markov Models (GCHMMs) for modeling the spread of infectious disease locally within a social network. Unlike most previous research in epidemiology, which typically models the spread of infection at the level…
Many epidemic processes in networks spread by stochastic contacts among their connected vertices. There are two limiting cases widely analyzed in the physics literature, the so-called contact process (CP) where the contagion is expanded at…
Recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks have placed immense strain on the hospital system in Quebec. We develop a Bayesian three-state coupled Markov switching model to analyze COVID-19 outbreaks across Quebec based on admissions in the 30 largest…
Exposure to air pollution is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Recent technological advancements permit the collection of time-resolved personal exposure data. Such data are often incomplete with missing observations and…
This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a non-exponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multi-stage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard…
We propose a Markovian stochastic approach to model the spread of a SARS-CoV-2-like infection within a closed group of humans. The model takes the form of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), whose states are given by the…
Discrete-time models are the traditional approach for capturing population dynamics of a host-parasitoid system. Recent work has introduced a semi-discrete framework for obtaining model update functions that connect host-parasitoid…
We consider a setting in which we have a treatment and a large number of covariates for a set of observations, and wish to model their relationship with an outcome of interest. We propose a simple method for modeling interactions between…
Introduction. Can the infection due to the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 induce a change in the differentiation status or process in T cells?. Methods. We will consider two stochastic Markov chain models, one which will describe the…
Dynamic networks exhibit temporal patterns that vary across different time scales, all of which can potentially affect processes that take place on the network. However, most data-driven approaches used to model time-varying networks…
A host-parasite model is considered for a population of cells that can be of two types, A or B, and exhibits unilateral reproduction: while a B-cell always splits into two cells of the same type, the two daughter cells of an A-cell can be…
In regard to infectious diseases socioeconomic determinants are strongly associated with differential exposure and susceptibility however they are seldom accounted for by standard compartmental infectious disease models. These associations…
In this article a flexible Bayesian non-parametric model is proposed for non-homogeneous hidden Markov models. The model is developed through the amalgamation of the ideas of hidden Markov models and predictor dependent stick-breaking…
Over the last decade, hidden Markov models (HMMs) have become increasingly popular in statistical ecology, where they constitute natural tools for studying animal behavior based on complex sensor data. Corresponding analyses sometimes…
The behavior of two interacting populations, ``hosts''and ``parasites'', is investigated on Cayley trees and scale-free networks. In the former case analytical and numerical arguments elucidate a phase diagram, whose most interesting…
We develop a stochastic epidemic model progressing over dynamic networks, where infection rates are heterogeneous and may vary with individual-level covariates. The joint dynamics are modeled as a continuous-time Markov chain such that…
Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an…
Certain defense mechanisms of phages against the immune system of their bacterial host rely on cooperation of phages. Motivated by this example we analyse invasion probabilities of cooperative parasites in host populations that are…
It is well recognised that animal and plant pathogens form complex ecological communities of interacting organisms within their hosts. Although community ecology approaches have been applied to determine pathogen interactions at the…
We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, like dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed by two structures representing the human and mosquito…