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We investigate the effects of cooperativity between contagion processes that spread and persist in a host population. We propose and analyze a dynamical model in which individuals that are affected by one transmissible agent $A$ exhibit a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-11-22 Li Chen , Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad , Dirk Brockmann

Many important questions in infectious disease epidemiology involve the effects of covariates (e.g., age or vaccination status) on infectiousness and susceptibility, which can be measured in studies of transmission in households or other…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-27 Yushuf Sharker , Zaynab Diallo , Wasiur R. KhudaBukhsh , Eben Kenah

The stacked contact process is a stochastic model for the spread of an infection within a population of hosts located on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice. Regardless of whether they are healthy or infected, hosts give birth and die at…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-16 Nicolas Lanchier , Yuan Zhang

We combine a pedestrian dynamics model with a contact tracing method to simulate the initial spreading of a highly infectious airborne disease in a confined environment. We focus on a medium size population (up to 1000 people) with a small…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-04-22 Krithika Rathinakumar , Annalisa Quaini

This paper introduces an innovative model for infectious diseases in predator-prey populations. We not only prove the existence of global non-negative solutions but also establish essential criteria for the system's decline and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-06-16 Yujie Gao , Malay Banerjee , Ton Viet Ta

We explore Markov-modulated marked Poisson processes (MMMPPs) as a natural framework for modelling patients' disease dynamics over time based on medical claims data. In claims data, observations do not only occur at random points in time…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-16 Sina Mews , Bastian Surmann , Lena Hasemann , Svenja Elkenkamp

Oncolytic virotherapy, utilizing genetically modified viruses to combat cancer and trigger anti-cancer immune responses, has garnered significant attention in recent years. In our previous work arXiv:2305.12386, we developed a stochastic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-23 David Morselli , Marcello E. Delitala , Adrianne L. Jenner , Federico Frascoli

Markovian population models are suitable abstractions to describe well-mixed interacting particle systems in situation where stochastic fluctuations are significant due to the involvement of low copy particles. In molecular biology,…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2014-01-17 Christoph Zechner , Federico Wadehn , Heinz Koeppl

Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-04-15 Joaquín Sanz , Cheng-Yi Xia , Sandro Meloni , Yamir Moreno

We introduce and discuss a kinetic framework describing the time evolution of the statistical distributions of a population divided into the compartments of susceptible, infectious, recovered, and resistant in the presence of a microbial…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-07 Marco Menale , Giuseppe Toscani , Mattia Zanella

While most existing epidemic models focus on the influence of isolated factors, infectious disease transmission is inherently shaped by the complex interplay of multiple interacting elements. To better capture real-world dynamics, it is…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-18 Guangyuan Mei , Yao Cai , Su-Su Zhang , Ying Huang , Chuang Liu , Xiu-Xiu Zhan

The study proposes a modeling framework for investigating the disease dynamics with adaptive human behavior during a disease outbreak, considering the impacts of both local observations and global information. One important application…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-08-26 Xinwu Qian , Jiawei Xue , Satish V. Ukkusuri

Ecologists often use a hidden Markov model to decode a latent process, such as a sequence of an animal's behaviours, from an observed biologging time series. Modern technological devices such as video recorders and drones now allow…

The human microbiome is a complex ecological system, and describing its structure and function under different environmental conditions is important from both basic scientific and medical perspectives. Viewed through a biostatistical lens,…

Applications · Statistics 2017-11-17 Kris Sankaran , Susan P. Holmes

We consider a Spatial Markov Chain model for the spread of viruses. The model is based on the principle to represent a graph connecting nodes, which represent humans. The vertices between the nodes represent relations between humans. In…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-14 Fred Vermolen

Mosquito vector competence is usually represented as a process in which once virus is detected in saliva, mosquitoes are assumed to remain infectious for life, implying an irreversible transition to the transmitting state. However, some…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-30 Léa Loisel , Tristan Monrocq , Vincent Raquin , Pauline Ezanno , Gaël Beaunée

Spatial patterning can be crucially important for understanding the behavior of interacting populations. Here we investigate a simple model of parasite and host populations in which parasites are random walkers that must come into contact…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-09-07 J. J. Dong , B. Skinner , N. Breecher , B. Schmittmann , R. K. P. Zia

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-29 Jenny Huang , Raphaël Morsomme , David Dunson , Jason Xu

Contacts' temporal ordering and dynamics are crucial for understanding the transmission of infectious diseases. We introduce an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks. We demonstrate our interaction-driven…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-08-11 Alex Abbey , Yanir Marmor , Yuval Shahar , Osnat Mokryn

Species interactions (ranging from direct predator prey relationships to indirect effects mediated by the environment) are central to ecosystem balance and biodiversity. While empirical methods for measuring these interactions exist, their…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-08-27 Javier Aguilar , Samir Suweis , Amos Maritan , Sandro Azaele