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In a new type of percolation phase transition, which was observed in a set of non-equilibrium models, each new connection between vertices is chosen from a number of possibilities by an Achlioptas-like algorithm. This causes preferential…
We obtain an asymptotic expansion for the tails of the random variable $\tcal=\arg\max_{u\in\mathbb{R}}(\mathcal{A}_2(u)-u^2)$ where $\mathcal{A}_2$ is the Airy$_2$ process. Using the formula of Schehr \cite{Sch} that connects the density…
We consider an ordinary differential equation with a unique hyperbolic attractor at the origin, to which we add a small random perturbation. It is known that under general conditions, the solution of this stochastic differential equation…
Two properties are needed for a classical system to be chaotic: exponential stretching and mixing. Recently, out-of-time order correlators were proposed as a measure of chaos in a wide range of physical systems. While most of the attention…
Coherent transport of excitations along chains of coupled quantum systems represents an interesting problem with a number of applications ranging from quantum optics to solar cell technology. A convenient tool for studying such processes…
When two Markov operators commute, it suggests that we can couple two copies of one of the corresponding processes. We explicitly construct a number of couplings of this type for a commuting family of Markov processes on the set of…
Extreme events are by nature rare and difficult to predict, yet are often much more important than frequent, typical events. An interesting counterpoint to the prediction of such events is their retrodiction -- given a process in an outlier…
I show how to run an N-time-step Markov chain simulation in a circular fashion, so that the state at time 0 follows the state at time N-1 in the same way as states at times t follow those at times t-1 for 0<t<N. This wrap-around of the…
Catastrophe Markov chain population models have received a lot of attention in the recent past. We herewith consider two special cases of such models involving total disasters, both in discrete and in continuous-time. Depending on the…
We explore the concept of a consistent exchangeable survival process - a joint distribution of survival times in which the risk set evolves as a continuous-time Markov process with homogeneous transition rates. We show a correspondence with…
The sequentially Markov coalescent (SMC) is a Markov jump process which models correlations in local genealogies across a chromosome. It has been used as a theoretical tool for studying linkage disequilibrium and identity-by-descent, and it…
We introduce the concept of `discrete-time persistence', which deals with zero-crossings of a continuous stochastic process, X(T), measured at discrete times, T = n \Delta T. For a Gaussian Markov process with relaxation rate \mu, we show…
We introduce an statistical mechanical formalism for the study of discrete-time stochastic processes with which we prove: (i) General properties of extremal chains, including triviality on the tail $\sigma$-algebra, short-range…
For a family of random intermittent dynamical systems with a superattracting fixed point we prove that a phase transition occurs between the existence of an absolutely continuous invariant probability measure and infinite measure depending…
We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…
We answer a question of Ahlberg and Steif (2014) by finding the tail behaviour of the crossing probability in near-critical planar percolation. Interestingly, this superexponentially small behaviour is different from the case of dynamical…
We develop an approach to time-consistent risk evaluation of continuous-time processes in Markov systems. Our analysis is based on dual representation of coherent risk measures, differentiability concepts for multivalued mappings, and a…
Consider a finite irreducible Markov chain with invariant probability $\pi$. Define its inverse communication speed as the expectation to go from x to y, when x, y are sampled independently according to $\pi$. In the discrete time setting…
In this short paper, we consider discrete-time Markov chains on lattices as approximations to continuous-time diffusion processes. The approximations can be interpreted as finite difference schemes for the generator of the process. We…
We show that oriented percolation occurs whenever a condition is satisfied called "exponential intersection tails". This condition says that a measure on paths exists for which the probability of two independent paths intersecting in more…