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In this paper we identify the asymptotic tail of the distribution of the exit time $\tau_C$ from a cone $C$ of an isotropic $\alpha$-self-similar Markov process $X_t$ with a skew-product structure, that is $X_t$ is a product of its radial…

Many finite-state reversible Markov chains can be naturally decomposed into "projection" and "restriction" chains. In this paper we provide bounds on the total variation mixing times of the original chain in terms of the mixing properties…

In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability…

We consider a simple discrete-time Markov chain with values in $[0,\infty)^{Z^d}$. The Markov chain describes various interesting examples such as oriented percolation, directed polymers in random environment, time discretizations of binary…

It is shown how a natural representation of perpetuities as asymptotically homogeneous in space Markov chains allows to prove various asymptotic tail results for stable perpetuities and limit theorems for unstable ones. Some of these…

Here we prove critical exponents for Random Connections Models (RCMs) with random marks. The vertices are given by a marked Poisson point process on $\mathbb{R}^d$ and an edge exists between any pair of vertices independently with a…

For a Coupled Map Lattice with a specific strong coupling emulating Stavskaya's probabilistic cellular automata, we prove the existence of a phase transition using a Peierls argument, and exponential convergence to the invariant measures…

We study scaling limits of non-increasing Markov chains with values in the set of non-negative integers, under the assumption that the large jump events are rare and happen at rates that behave like a negative power of the current state. We…

Filtering---estimating the state of a partially observable Markov process from a sequence of observations---is one of the most widely studied problems in control theory, AI, and computational statistics. Exact computation of the posterior…

In this brief note, we find formulas for the distribution and the transition probability matrices of a stochastic process described as a time-reversion in a finite time window of a Markov chain, with cluster observation of the Markov state…

For first passage percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^2$ with i.i.d. bounded edge weights, we consider the upper tail large deviation event; i.e., the rare situation where the first passage time between two points at distance $n$, is macroscopically…

Suppose the auto-correlations of real-valued, centered Gaussian process $Z(\cdot)$ are non-negative and decay as $\rho(|s-t|)$ for some $\rho(\cdot)$ regularly varying at infinity of order $-\alpha \in [-1,0)$. With $I_\rho(t)=\int_0^t…

We consider continuous-time Markov chain on a finite state space X. We assume X can be clustered into several subsets such that the intra-transition rates within these subsets are of order $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ comparing to the…

Let $(X_t)_{t = 0 }^{\infty}$ be an irreducible reversible discrete time Markov chain on a finite state space $\Omega $. Denote its transition matrix by $P$. To avoid periodicity issues (and thus ensuring convergence to equilibrium) one…

We use coupling to study the time taken until the distribution of a statistic on a Markov chain is close to its stationary distribution. Coupling is a common technique used to obtain upper bounds on mixing times of Markov chains, and we…

We give computable bounds on the rate of convergence of the transition probabilities to the stationary distribution for a certain class of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. Our results are different from earlier estimates of Meyn and…

When there is no independence, abnormal observations may have a tendency to appear in clusters instead of scattered along the time frame. Identifying clusters and estimating their size are important problems arising in statistics of…

The scaling of the tails of the probability of a system to percolate only in the horizontal direction $\pi_{hs}$ was investigated numerically for correlated site-bond percolation model for $q=1,2,3,4$.We have to demonstrate that the tails…

In this paper, we propose a novel stochastic process that serves as a natural discrete-time counterpart to the continuous-time model known as the ``Poisson hyperbolic staircase'' proposed by Levikson et al. (1999), and clarify its…

Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…