Related papers: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Solar Cycles Us…
The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum). It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects…
We introduce a new method for predicting sunspot number (SSN) that, based on successful back projections, can predict features of the SSN several solar cycles in advance. The method applies Fourier analysis to the annual SILSO SSN record,…
We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days (SLDs) during the descending phase of solar cycle $11$--$24$ to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle $25$. For this purpose, in addition to SLD, we also use the geomagnetic…
The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…
The maximum of a solar cycle contain two or more peaks, known as Gnevyshev peaks. Studies of this property of solar cycles may help for better understanding the solar dynamo mechanism. We analysed the 13-month smoothed monthly mean…
Digitized images of full disk CaK spectroheliograms from two solar observatories were used to study cycle variation of ephemeral regions (ERs) over ten solar cycles 14-23. We calculate monthly averaged unsigned latitude of ERs and compare…
Although systematic measurements of the solar polar magnetic field exist only from mid 1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field…
The Sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of spots on its disk over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding -- their quasi-periodic…
Physics-based solar cycle predictions provide an effective way to verify our understanding of the solar cycle. Before the start of cycle 25, several physics-based solar cycle predictions were developed. These predictions use flux transport…
In this paper, a stochastic model with regime switching is developed for solar photo-voltaic (PV) power in order to provide short-term probabilistic forecasts. The proposed model for solar PV power is physics inspired and explicitly…
Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…
A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values is proposed to predict the maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle from the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aamin). The correlation between lnRm and lnaamin (r = 0.92) is…
Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in…
The relative number of sunspots represents the longest evidence describing the level of solar activity. As such, its use goes beyond solar physics, e.g. towards climate research. The construction of a single representative series is a…
We create a continuous series of daily and monthly hemispheric sunspot numbers (HSNs) from 1874 to 2020, which will be continuously expanded in the future with the HSNs provided by SILSO. Based on the available daily measurements of…
One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are…
Solar energy is one of the most economical and clean sustainable energy sources on the planet. However, the solar energy throughput is highly unpredictable due to its dependency on a plethora of conditions including weather, seasons, and…
To study and forecast the solar activity data a quite perspective method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is proposed. As known, data of the solar activity are usually presented via the Wolf numbers associated with the effective amount…
Through meticulous daily observation of the Sun's large-scale magnetic field the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) has catalogued two magnetic (Hale) cycles of solar activity. Those two (~22-year long) Hale cycles have yielded four…
In this work we introduce a new way of binning sunspot group data with the purpose of better understanding the impact of the solar cycle on sunspot properties and how this defined the characteristics of the extended minimum of cycle 23. Our…