The Solar Cycle: A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values
Abstract
A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values is proposed to predict the maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle from the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aamin). The correlation between lnRm and lnaamin (r = 0.92) is slightly stronger than that between Rm and aamin (r = 0.90). From this method, cycle 24 is predicted to have a peak size of Rm (24) = 81.7(1\pm13.2%). If the suggested error in aa (3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation coefficient between Rm and aamin (r = 0.94) will be slightly higher, and the peak of cycle 24 is predicted much lower, Rm(24) = 52.5\pm13.1. Therefore, the prediction of Rm based on the relationship between Rm and aamin depends greatly on the accurate measurement of aa.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1110.5973,
title = {The Solar Cycle: A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values},
author = {Z. L. Du},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1110.5973},
year = {2011}
}
Comments
6 pages, 3 figures, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Science