Related papers: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Solar Cycles Us…
With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…
The main purpose of this study is the determination of solar minimum date of the new sunspot cycle No 24. It is provided by using of four types of mean daily data values for the period Jan 01. 2006 - Dec 31. 2009: (1) the solar radioindex…
The data of sunspot numbers, sunspot areas and solar flare index during cycle 23 are analyzed to investigate the intermediate-term periodicities. Power spectral analysis has been performed separately for the data of the whole disk, northern…
Using Greenwich and SOON sunspot group data during the period 1874 -- 2005, we find that the sums of the areas of the sunspot groups in $0^\circ$ -- $10^\circ$ latitude-interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval,…
We investigate the statistical properties of the extreme events of the solar cycle as measured by the sunspot number. The recent advances in the methodology of the theory of extreme values is applied to the maximal extremes of the time…
We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…
Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work, poloidal and toroidal magnetic field…
This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely…
Most solar flares originate in sunspot groups, where magnetic field changes lead to energy build-up and release. However, few flare-forecasting methods use information of sunspot-group evolution, instead focusing on static point-in-time…
The sunspot area fluctuations for the northern and the southern hemispheres of the Sun over the epoch of 12 cycles (12-23) are investigated. Because of the asymmetry of their probability distributions, the positive and the negative…
The present paper reviews results derived from statistical studies on solar activity indices. The prolonged minimum phase of cycle 23 raised the question of peculiarities inherent in cycle 23. The most important solar activity index is the…
We compare two candidate nonlinearities for regulating the solar cycle within the Babcock-Leighton paradigm: tilt quenching (whereby the tilt of active regions is reduced in stronger cycles) and latitude quenching (whereby flux emerges at…
Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence…
It has been suggested that the deficit in the number of spots on the surface of the Sun between 1790 and 1830, known as the Dalton minimum, contained an extra cycle that was not identified in the original sunspot record by Wolf. Though this…
Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found…
The polar precursor method is widely considered to be the most robust physically motivated method to predict the amplitude of an upcoming solar cycle.It uses indicators of the magnetic field concentrated near the poles around sunspot…
Based on analysis of the annual averaged relative sunspot number (ASN) during 1700 -- 2009, 3 kinds of solar cycles are confirmed: the well-known 11-yr cycle (Schwabe cycle), 103-yr secular cycle (numbered as G1, G2, G3, and G4,…
The McNish and Lincoln (ML) method, introduced in 1949, was one of the first attempts to produce mid-term forecasts of solar activity, up to 12 months ahead. However, it has been poorly described and evaluated in the past literature, in…
The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…
Forecasting the strength of the sunspot cycle is highly important for many space weather applications. Our previous studies have shown the importance of sunspot number variability in the declining phase of the current 11-year sunspot cycle…