Related papers: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Solar Cycles Us…
The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough…
Recent developments in instrumentation (e.g., in particular the Kepler and CoRoT satellites) provide a new opportunity to improve the models of stellar pulsations. Surface layers, rotation, and magnetic fields imprint erratic frequency…
Accurate intraday forecasts are essential for power system operations, complementing day-ahead forecasts that gradually lose relevance as new information becomes available. This paper introduces a Bayesian updating mechanism that converts…
The solar interior is probed by the properties of the Sun's acoustic oscillations (p-modes) observed on the solar surface. The frequencies of these p-modes measured in the last three decades show long term variation similar to the 11 year…
We use recently digitized sunspot drawings from Mount Wilson Observatory to investigate the latitudinal dependence of tilt angles of active regions and its change with solar cycle. The drawings cover the period from 1917 to present and…
We attempt to forecast the Sun's sunspot butterfly diagram in both space (i.e. in latitude) and time, instead of the usual one-dimensional time series forecasts prevalent in the scientific literature. We use a prediction method based on the…
We use the technique of wavelet analysis to quantitatively investigate the role of solar variability in forcing terrestrial climate change on solar cycle timescales (roughly 11 years). We examine the connection between mean annual solar…
Long-term sensor network deployments demand careful power management. While managing power requires understanding the amount of energy harvestable from the local environment, current solar prediction methods rely only on recent local…
Over the past century, the Sun's activity -- which exhibits significant variations -- went through a phase known as the Modern Maximum. Notably, the strongest sunspot cycle on record during this period, and indeed since direct sunspot…
Polar fields at the minimum of a sunspot cycle -- which are a manifestation of the radial component of the Sun's poloidal field -- are deemed to be the best indicator of the strength of the toroidal component, and hence the amplitude of the…
The subject of this paper is the existence and stability of solar cycles with durations in the range of 20-250 years. Five types of data series are used: 1) The Zurich series (1749-2009 AD), the mean annual International sunspot number Ri,…
The prediction of the strength of an upcoming solar cycle has been a long-standing challenge in the field of solar physics. The inherent stochastic nature of the underlying solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycle vary in a wide…
Solar activity forecasting is an important topic for numerous scientific and technological areas, such as space mission operations, electric power transmission lines, power transformation stations and earth geophysical and climatic impact.…
The paper presents the results of the analysis of the geometric characteristics of sunspots for the period of 19-24 cycles of activity. The shape of sunspots was studied on the basis of the method of normalization of images of sunspots to…
Context: The Sun's polar fields and open flux around the time of activity minima have been considered to be strongly correlated with the strength of the subsequent maximum of solar activity. Aims: We aim to investigate the behavior of a…
Recently Pop ({\it Solar Phys.} {\bf 276}, 351, 2012) identified a Laplace (or double exponential) distribution in the number of days with a given absolute value in the change over a day, in sunspot number, for days on which the sunspot…
The paper presents a Gaussian/kernel process regression method for real-time state estimation and forecasting of phase angle and angular speed in systems with a high penetration of solar generation units, operating under a sparse…
Context. Solar activity, dominated by the 11-year cyclic evolution, has been observed directly since 1610. Before that, indirect cosmogenic proxy data are used to reconstruct it over millennia. Recently, the precision of radiocarbon…
We analyzed the sunspot-group daily data that were reported by Greenwich Photoheliogrphic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017. We determined the equatorial rotation…
The Birmingham Solar-Oscillations Network (BiSON) has been collecting data for over 30yrs and so observations span nearly three 11yr solar activity cycles. This allows us to address important questions concerning the solar cycle and its…